Citation
Garcia Viñas, Juan Ignacio and Gastón González, Aitor and Ropero, Carlos and Gonzalo Aranoa, Carlos de and Robredo Sanchez, José Carlos and Mintegui Aguirre, Juan Ángel
(2011).
Predicting temporary wetland plant community responses to changes in the hydroperiod.
In: "54th Symposium of the International Association for Vegetation Science", 20/06/2011 - 24/06/2011, Lyon, Francia. ISBN 9782953951516.
Abstract
The expected changes on rainfall in the next decades may cause significant changes of the hydroperiod of temporary wetlands and, consequently, shifts on plant community distributions. Predicting plant community responses to changes in the hydroperiod is a key issue for conservation and management of temporary wetlands. We present a predictive distribution model for Arthrocnemum macrostachyum communities in the Doñana wetland (Southern Spain). Logistic regression was used to fit the model using the number of days of inundation and the mean water height as predictors. The internal validation of the model yielded good performance measures. The model was applied to a set of expected scenarios of changes in the hydroperiod to anticipate the most likely shifts in the distribution of Arthrocnemum macrostachyum communities.