Impacts of projected maximum temperature extremes for C21 by an ensemble of regional climate models on cereal cropping systems in the Iberian Peninsula

Ruiz Ramos, Margarita and Sanchez, E. and Gallardo, C. and Minguez Tudela, Maria Ines (2011). Impacts of projected maximum temperature extremes for C21 by an ensemble of regional climate models on cereal cropping systems in the Iberian Peninsula. "Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences", v. 11 (n. 12); pp. 3275-3291. ISSN 1561-8633. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-11-3275-2011.

Description

Title: Impacts of projected maximum temperature extremes for C21 by an ensemble of regional climate models on cereal cropping systems in the Iberian Peninsula
Author/s:
  • Ruiz Ramos, Margarita
  • Sanchez, E.
  • Gallardo, C.
  • Minguez Tudela, Maria Ines
Item Type: Article
Título de Revista/Publicación: Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
Date: 2011
ISSN: 1561-8633
Volume: 11
Subjects:
Faculty: E.T.S.I. Agrónomos (UPM) [antigua denominación]
Department: Producción Vegetal: Fitotecnia [hasta 2014]
Creative Commons Licenses: Recognition - No derivative works - Non commercial

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Abstract

Crops growing in the Iberian Peninsula may be subjected to damagingly high temperatures during the sensitive development periods of flowering and grain filling. Such episodes are considered important hazards and farmers may take insurance to offset their impact. Increases in value and frequency of maximum temperature have been observed in the Iberian Peninsula during the 20th century, and studies on climate change indicate the possibility of further increase by the end of the 21st century. Here, impacts of current and future high temperatures on cereal cropping systems of the Iberian Peninsula are evaluated, focusing on vulnerable development periods of winter and summer crops. Climate change scenarios obtained from an ensemble of ten Regional Climate Models (multimodel ensemble) combined with crop simulation models were used for this purpose and related uncertainty was estimated. Results reveal that higher extremes of maximum temperature represent a threat to summer-grown but not to winter-grown crops in the Iberian Peninsula. The study highlights the different vulnerability of crops in the two growing seasons and the need to account for changes in extreme temperatures in developing adaptations in cereal cropping systems. Finally, this work contributes to clarifying the causes of high-uncertainty impact projections from previous studies.

More information

Item ID: 12353
DC Identifier: http://oa.upm.es/12353/
OAI Identifier: oai:oa.upm.es:12353
DOI: 10.5194/nhess-11-3275-2011
Official URL: http://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/11/3275/2011/nhess-11-3275-2011.pdf
Deposited by: Memoria Investigacion
Deposited on: 13 Aug 2012 07:47
Last Modified: 21 Apr 2016 11:36
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