Influence of local wind speed and direction on wind power dynamics - Application to offshore very short-term forecasting

Gallego, C. and Pinson, P. and Madsen, Henrik and Costa, Alexandre and Cuerva Tejero, Alvaro (2011). Influence of local wind speed and direction on wind power dynamics - Application to offshore very short-term forecasting. "Applied Energy", v. 88 (n. 11); pp. 4087-4096. ISSN 0306-2619. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2011.04.051.

Description

Title: Influence of local wind speed and direction on wind power dynamics - Application to offshore very short-term forecasting
Author/s:
  • Gallego, C.
  • Pinson, P.
  • Madsen, Henrik
  • Costa, Alexandre
  • Cuerva Tejero, Alvaro
Item Type: Article
Título de Revista/Publicación: Applied Energy
Date: 2011
ISSN: 0306-2619
Volume: 88
Subjects:
Faculty: E.T.S.I. Aeronáuticos (UPM)
Department: Vehículos Aeroespaciales [hasta 2014]
Creative Commons Licenses: Recognition - No derivative works - Non commercial

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Abstract

Wind power time series usually show complex dynamics mainly due to non-linearities related to the wind physics and the power transformation process in wind farms. This article provides an approach to the incorporation of observed local variables (wind speed and direction) to model some of these effects by means of statistical models. To this end, a benchmarking between two different families of varying-coefficient models (regime-switching and conditional parametric models) is carried out. The case of the offshore wind farm of Horns Rev in Denmark has been considered. The analysis is focused on one-step ahead forecasting and a time series resolution of 10 min. It has been found that the local wind direction contributes to model some features of the prevailing winds, such as the impact of the wind direction on the wind variability, whereas the non-linearities related to the power transformation process can be introduced by considering the local wind speed. In both cases, conditional parametric models showed a better performance than the one achieved by the regime-switching strategy. The results attained reinforce the idea that each explanatory variable allows the modelling of different underlying effects in the dynamics of wind power time series.

More information

Item ID: 14216
DC Identifier: http://oa.upm.es/14216/
OAI Identifier: oai:oa.upm.es:14216
DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2011.04.051
Official URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306261911002868
Deposited by: Memoria Investigacion
Deposited on: 06 Feb 2013 09:36
Last Modified: 19 Nov 2014 17:06
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