Traffic uncertainty in toll motorway concessions in Spain

Baeza Muñoz, Mª de los Ángeles and Vassallo Magro, José Manuel (2012). Traffic uncertainty in toll motorway concessions in Spain. "Proceedings of the ICE - Transport", v. 165 (n. 2); pp. 97-105. ISSN 0965-092X. https://doi.org/10.1680/tran.2012.165.2.97.

Description

Title: Traffic uncertainty in toll motorway concessions in Spain
Author/s:
  • Baeza Muñoz, Mª de los Ángeles
  • Vassallo Magro, José Manuel
Item Type: Article
Título de Revista/Publicación: Proceedings of the ICE - Transport
Date: 1 May 2012
ISSN: 0965-092X
Volume: 165
Subjects:
Faculty: E.T.S.I. Caminos, Canales y Puertos (UPM)
Department: Ingeniería Civil: Transportes [hasta 2014]
Creative Commons Licenses: Recognition - No derivative works - Non commercial

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Abstract

This study assessed the inaccuracy of the traffic estimates for toll motorway concessions in Spain. It was found that the estimates conducted by both the government and the concessionaire showed a significant bias towards overestimating traffic. The level of overestimation in Spain is even greater than that reported by other studies based on worldwide data. The notorious levels of overestimation entail severe burdens to the economics of the concessionaires that often prompt renegotiations of the contracts, which are often accepted by the government. These renegotiations usually end up with toll changes or extension of the concession terms, which have to be ultimately borne by future motorway users. It is postulated herein that the bias towards overestimating traffic in toll motorways in Spain is mostly caused by strategic issues rather than by modelling errors.

More information

Item ID: 15220
DC Identifier: http://oa.upm.es/15220/
OAI Identifier: oai:oa.upm.es:15220
DOI: 10.1680/tran.2012.165.2.97
Official URL: http://www.icevirtuallibrary.com/content/article/10.1680/tran.2012.165.2.97
Deposited by: Memoria Investigacion
Deposited on: 11 Nov 2013 13:13
Last Modified: 21 Apr 2016 15:13
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