Traffic uncertainty in toll motorway concessions in Spain

Baeza Muñoz, Mª de los Ángeles y Vassallo Magro, José Manuel (2012). Traffic uncertainty in toll motorway concessions in Spain. "Proceedings of the ICE - Transport", v. 165 (n. 2); pp. 97-105. ISSN 0965-092X. https://doi.org/10.1680/tran.2012.165.2.97.

Descripción

Título: Traffic uncertainty in toll motorway concessions in Spain
Autor/es:
  • Baeza Muñoz, Mª de los Ángeles
  • Vassallo Magro, José Manuel
Tipo de Documento: Artículo
Título de Revista/Publicación: Proceedings of the ICE - Transport
Fecha: 1 Mayo 2012
Volumen: 165
Materias:
Escuela: E.T.S.I. Caminos, Canales y Puertos (UPM)
Departamento: Ingeniería Civil: Transportes [hasta 2014]
Licencias Creative Commons: Reconocimiento - Sin obra derivada - No comercial

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Resumen

This study assessed the inaccuracy of the traffic estimates for toll motorway concessions in Spain. It was found that the estimates conducted by both the government and the concessionaire showed a significant bias towards overestimating traffic. The level of overestimation in Spain is even greater than that reported by other studies based on worldwide data. The notorious levels of overestimation entail severe burdens to the economics of the concessionaires that often prompt renegotiations of the contracts, which are often accepted by the government. These renegotiations usually end up with toll changes or extension of the concession terms, which have to be ultimately borne by future motorway users. It is postulated herein that the bias towards overestimating traffic in toll motorways in Spain is mostly caused by strategic issues rather than by modelling errors.

Más información

ID de Registro: 15220
Identificador DC: http://oa.upm.es/15220/
Identificador OAI: oai:oa.upm.es:15220
Identificador DOI: 10.1680/tran.2012.165.2.97
URL Oficial: http://www.icevirtuallibrary.com/content/article/10.1680/tran.2012.165.2.97
Depositado por: Memoria Investigacion
Depositado el: 11 Nov 2013 13:13
Ultima Modificación: 21 Abr 2016 15:13
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