Economic analysis of drought risks: an application to irrigated agriculture in Spain

Gil Sevilla, Marina and Garrido Colmenero, Alberto and Gomez Ramos, Almudena (2011). Economic analysis of drought risks: an application to irrigated agriculture in Spain. "Agricultural Water Management", v. 98 (n. 5); pp. 823-833. ISSN 0378-3774. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2010.12.008.

Description

Title: Economic analysis of drought risks: an application to irrigated agriculture in Spain
Author/s:
  • Gil Sevilla, Marina
  • Garrido Colmenero, Alberto
  • Gomez Ramos, Almudena
Item Type: Article
Título de Revista/Publicación: Agricultural Water Management
Date: March 2011
ISSN: 0378-3774
Volume: 98
Subjects:
Faculty: Centro de Estudios e Investigación para la Gestión de Riesgos Agrarios y Medioambientales (CEIGRAM) (UPM)
Department: Otro
Creative Commons Licenses: Recognition - No derivative works - Non commercial

Full text

[img]
Preview
PDF - Requires a PDF viewer, such as GSview, Xpdf or Adobe Acrobat Reader
Download (4MB) | Preview

Abstract

Abstract This paper describes a two-part methodology for managing the risk posed by water supply variability to irrigated agriculture. First, an econometric model is used to explain the variation in the production value of irrigated agriculture. The explanatory variables include an index of irrigation water availability (surface storage levels), a price index representative of the crops grown in each geographical unit, and a time variable. The model corrects for autocorrelation and it is applied to 16 representative Spanish provinces in terms of irrigated agriculture. In the second part, the fitted models are used for the economic evaluation of drought risk. In flow variability in the hydrological system servicing each province is used to perform ex-ante evaluations of economic output for the upcoming irrigation season. The model?s error and the probability distribution functions (PDFs) of the reservoirs? storage variations are used to generate Monte Carlo (Latin Hypercube) simulations of agricultural output 7 and 3 months prior to the irrigation season. The results of these simulations illustrate the different risk profiles of each management unit, which depend on farm productivity and on the probability distribution function of water in flow to reservoirs. The potential for ex-ante drought impact assessments is demonstrated. By complementing hydrological models, this method can assist water managers and decisionmakers in managing reservoirs.

More information

Item ID: 15468
DC Identifier: http://oa.upm.es/15468/
OAI Identifier: oai:oa.upm.es:15468
DOI: 10.1016/j.agwat.2010.12.008
Official URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378377410003914
Deposited by: Memoria Investigacion
Deposited on: 29 May 2013 12:20
Last Modified: 21 Apr 2016 15:32
  • Logo InvestigaM (UPM)
  • Logo GEOUP4
  • Logo Open Access
  • Open Access
  • Logo Sherpa/Romeo
    Check whether the anglo-saxon journal in which you have published an article allows you to also publish it under open access.
  • Logo Dulcinea
    Check whether the spanish journal in which you have published an article allows you to also publish it under open access.
  • Logo de Recolecta
  • Logo del Observatorio I+D+i UPM
  • Logo de OpenCourseWare UPM