Economic analysis of drought risks: an application to irrigated agriculture in Spain

Gil Sevilla, Marina; Garrido Colmenero, Alberto y Gomez Ramos, Almudena (2011). Economic analysis of drought risks: an application to irrigated agriculture in Spain. "Agricultural Water Management", v. 98 (n. 5); pp. 823-833. ISSN 0378-3774. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2010.12.008.

Descripción

Título: Economic analysis of drought risks: an application to irrigated agriculture in Spain
Autor/es:
  • Gil Sevilla, Marina
  • Garrido Colmenero, Alberto
  • Gomez Ramos, Almudena
Tipo de Documento: Artículo
Título de Revista/Publicación: Agricultural Water Management
Fecha: Marzo 2011
Volumen: 98
Materias:
Escuela: Centro de Estudios e Investigación para la Gestión de Riesgos Agrarios y Medioambientales (CEIGRAM) (UPM)
Departamento: Otro
Licencias Creative Commons: Reconocimiento - Sin obra derivada - No comercial

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Resumen

Abstract This paper describes a two-part methodology for managing the risk posed by water supply variability to irrigated agriculture. First, an econometric model is used to explain the variation in the production value of irrigated agriculture. The explanatory variables include an index of irrigation water availability (surface storage levels), a price index representative of the crops grown in each geographical unit, and a time variable. The model corrects for autocorrelation and it is applied to 16 representative Spanish provinces in terms of irrigated agriculture. In the second part, the fitted models are used for the economic evaluation of drought risk. In flow variability in the hydrological system servicing each province is used to perform ex-ante evaluations of economic output for the upcoming irrigation season. The model?s error and the probability distribution functions (PDFs) of the reservoirs? storage variations are used to generate Monte Carlo (Latin Hypercube) simulations of agricultural output 7 and 3 months prior to the irrigation season. The results of these simulations illustrate the different risk profiles of each management unit, which depend on farm productivity and on the probability distribution function of water in flow to reservoirs. The potential for ex-ante drought impact assessments is demonstrated. By complementing hydrological models, this method can assist water managers and decisionmakers in managing reservoirs.

Más información

ID de Registro: 15468
Identificador DC: http://oa.upm.es/15468/
Identificador OAI: oai:oa.upm.es:15468
Identificador DOI: 10.1016/j.agwat.2010.12.008
URL Oficial: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378377410003914
Depositado por: Memoria Investigacion
Depositado el: 29 May 2013 12:20
Ultima Modificación: 21 Abr 2016 15:32
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