Modelling seed germination in forest tree species through survival analysis. The Pinus pinea L. case study

Manso González, Rubén and Fortin, Mathieu and Calama Sainz, Rafael Argimiro and Pardos Mínguez, Marta (2013). Modelling seed germination in forest tree species through survival analysis. The Pinus pinea L. case study. "Forest Ecology and Management" (n. 289); pp. 515-524. ISSN 0378-1127. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2012.10.028.

Description

Title: Modelling seed germination in forest tree species through survival analysis. The Pinus pinea L. case study
Author/s:
  • Manso González, Rubén
  • Fortin, Mathieu
  • Calama Sainz, Rafael Argimiro
  • Pardos Mínguez, Marta
Item Type: Article
Título de Revista/Publicación: Forest Ecology and Management
Date: 2013
ISSN: 0378-1127
Subjects:
Faculty: E.T.S.I. Montes (UPM)
Department: Silvopascicultura [hasta 2014]
Creative Commons Licenses: None

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Abstract

The direct application of existing models for seed germination may often be inadequate in the context of ecology and forestry germination experiments. This is because basic model assumptions are violated and variables available to forest managers are rarely used. In this paper, we present a method which addresses the aforementioned shortcomings. The approach is illustrated through a case study of Pinus pinea L. Our findings will also shed light on the role of germination in the general failure of natural regeneration in managed forests of this species. The presented technique consists of a mixed regression model based on survival analysis. Climate and stand covariates were tested. Data for fitting the model were gathered from a 5-year germination experiment in a mature, managed P. pinea stand in the Northern Plateau of Spain in which two different stand densities can be found. The model predictions proved to be unbiased and highly accurate when compared with the training data. Germination in P. pinea was controlled through thermal variables at stand level. At microsite level, low densities negatively affected the probability of germination. A time-lag in the response was also detected. Overall, the proposed technique provides a reliable alternative to germination modelling in ecology/forestry studies by using accessible/ suitable variables. The P. pinea case study highlights the importance of producing unbiased predictions. In this species, the occurrence and timing of germination suggest a very different regeneration strategy from that understood by forest managers until now, which may explain the high failure rate of natural regeneration in managed stands. In addition, these findings provide valuable information for the management of P. pinea under climate-change conditions.

More information

Item ID: 15944
DC Identifier: http://oa.upm.es/15944/
OAI Identifier: oai:oa.upm.es:15944
DOI: 10.1016/j.foreco.2012.10.028
Official URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378112712006251
Deposited by: Rubén Manso González
Deposited on: 24 Jun 2013 07:06
Last Modified: 01 Mar 2015 23:56
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