Evaluation and improvement of empirical models of global solar irradiation: Case study northern Spain

Antoñanzas Torres, Fernando and Sanz García, Andrés and Martínez de Pisón, F. Javier and Perpiñan Lamigueiro, Oscar (2013). Evaluation and improvement of empirical models of global solar irradiation: Case study northern Spain. "Renewable Energy", v. 60 ; pp. 604-614. ISSN 0960-1481. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2013.06.008.

Description

Title: Evaluation and improvement of empirical models of global solar irradiation: Case study northern Spain
Author/s:
  • Antoñanzas Torres, Fernando
  • Sanz García, Andrés
  • Martínez de Pisón, F. Javier
  • Perpiñan Lamigueiro, Oscar
Item Type: Article
Título de Revista/Publicación: Renewable Energy
Date: December 2013
ISSN: 0960-1481
Volume: 60
Subjects:
Freetext Keywords: Solar global irradiation, empirical models, time series, evapotranspiration
Faculty: E.U.I.T. Industrial (UPM)
Department: Ingeniería Eléctrica [hasta 2014]
Creative Commons Licenses: Recognition - Share

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Abstract

This paper presents a new methodology to build parametric models to estimate global solar irradiation adjusted to specific on-site characteristics based on the evaluation of variable im- portance. Thus, those variables higly correlated to solar irradiation on a site are implemented in the model and therefore, different models might be proposed under different climates. This methodology is applied in a study case in La Rioja region (northern Spain). A new model is proposed and evaluated on stability and accuracy against a review of twenty-two already exist- ing parametric models based on temperatures and rainfall in seventeen meteorological stations in La Rioja. The methodology of model evaluation is based on bootstrapping, which leads to achieve a high level of confidence in model calibration and validation from short time series (in this case five years, from 2007 to 2011). The model proposed improves the estimates of the other twenty-two models with average mean absolute error (MAE) of 2.195 MJ/m2 day and average confidence interval width (95% C.I., n=100) of 0.261 MJ/m2 day. 41.65% of the daily residuals in the case of SIAR and 20.12% in that of SOS Rioja fall within the uncertainty tolerance of the pyranometers of the two networks (10% and 5%, respectively). Relative differences between measured and estimated irradiation on an annual cumulative basis are below 4.82%. Thus, the proposed model might be useful to estimate annual sums of global solar irradiation, reaching insignificant differences between measurements from pyranometers.

More information

Item ID: 20815
DC Identifier: http://oa.upm.es/20815/
OAI Identifier: oai:oa.upm.es:20815
DOI: 10.1016/j.renene.2013.06.008
Official URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0960148113003017
Deposited by: Oscar Perpiñán Lamigueiro
Deposited on: 30 Sep 2013 08:23
Last Modified: 31 Dec 2015 23:56
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