Uncertainty Analysis in New Seismic Hazard Study of Spain Aimed at the Revision of the Spanish Building Code.

Gaspar-Escribano, J. M. and Benito Oterino, María Belén and Gaspar Escribano, Jorge M. and Cabañas, Luis and Martínez-Solares, J. Manuel and Ruíz, Sandra and Carreño, Emilio and Crespo, María and García-Mayordomo, Julián and Bernal, Alberto (2013). Uncertainty Analysis in New Seismic Hazard Study of Spain Aimed at the Revision of the Spanish Building Code.. In: "AGU Meeting of the Americas", 14/05/2013 - 17/05/2013, Cancún, México. pp..

Description

Title: Uncertainty Analysis in New Seismic Hazard Study of Spain Aimed at the Revision of the Spanish Building Code.
Author/s:
  • Gaspar-Escribano, J. M.
  • Benito Oterino, María Belén
  • Gaspar Escribano, Jorge M.
  • Cabañas, Luis
  • Martínez-Solares, J. Manuel
  • Ruíz, Sandra
  • Carreño, Emilio
  • Crespo, María
  • García-Mayordomo, Julián
  • Bernal, Alberto
Item Type: Presentation at Congress or Conference (Poster)
Event Title: AGU Meeting of the Americas
Event Dates: 14/05/2013 - 17/05/2013
Event Location: Cancún, México
Title of Book: Proceedings of the 2013 Meeting of the Americas
Date: 2013
Subjects:
Freetext Keywords: Seismos.
Faculty: E.T.S.I. en Topografía, Geodesia y Cartografía (UPM)
Department: Ingeniería Topográfica y Cartografía [hasta 2014]
Creative Commons Licenses: Recognition - No derivative works - Non commercial

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Abstract

In this paper we present a global overview of the recent study carried out in Spain for the new hazard map, which final goal is the revision of the Building Code in our country (NCSE-02). The study was carried our for a working group joining experts from The Instituto Geografico Nacional (IGN) and the Technical University of Madrid (UPM) , being the different phases of the work supervised by an expert Committee integrated by national experts from public institutions involved in subject of seismic hazard. The PSHA method (Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment) has been followed, quantifying the epistemic uncertainties through a logic tree and the aleatory ones linked to variability of parameters by means of probability density functions and Monte Carlo simulations. In a first phase, the inputs have been prepared, which essentially are: 1) a project catalogue update and homogenization at Mw 2) proposal of zoning models and source characterization 3) calibration of Ground Motion Prediction Equations (GMPE’s) with actual data and development of a local model with data collected in Spain for Mw < 5.5. In a second phase, a sensitivity analysis of the different input options on hazard results has been carried out in order to have criteria for defining the branches of the logic tree and their weights. Finally, the hazard estimation was done with the logic tree shown in figure 1, including nodes for quantifying uncertainties corresponding to: 1) method for estimation of hazard (zoning and zoneless); 2) zoning models, 3) GMPE combinations used and 4) regression method for estimation of source parameters. In addition, the aleatory uncertainties corresponding to the magnitude of the events, recurrence parameters and maximum magnitude for each zone have been also considered including probability density functions and Monte Carlo simulations The main conclusions of the study are presented here, together with the obtained results in terms of PGA and other spectral accelerations SA (T) for return periods of 475, 975 and 2475 years. The map of the coefficient of variation (COV) are also represented to give an idea of the zones where the dispersion among results are the highest and the zones where the results are robust.

More information

Item ID: 26694
DC Identifier: http://oa.upm.es/26694/
OAI Identifier: oai:oa.upm.es:26694
Official URL: http://moa.agu.org/2013/
Deposited by: Memoria Investigacion
Deposited on: 06 Aug 2014 13:06
Last Modified: 01 Oct 2014 14:03
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