Uncertainty Analysis in New Seismic Hazard Study of Spain Aimed at the Revision of the Spanish Building Code.

Rivas Medina, Alicia; Benito Oterino, María Belén; Gaspar Escribano, Jorge M.; Cabañas, Luis; Martínez-Solares, J. Manuel; Ruíz, Sandra; Carreño, Emilio; Crespo, María; García-Mayordomo, Julián y Bernal, Alberto (2013). Uncertainty Analysis in New Seismic Hazard Study of Spain Aimed at the Revision of the Spanish Building Code.. En: "AGU Meeting of the Americas", 14/05/2013 - 17/05/2013, Cancún, México. pp..

Descripción

Título: Uncertainty Analysis in New Seismic Hazard Study of Spain Aimed at the Revision of the Spanish Building Code.
Autor/es:
  • Rivas Medina, Alicia
  • Benito Oterino, María Belén
  • Gaspar Escribano, Jorge M.
  • Cabañas, Luis
  • Martínez-Solares, J. Manuel
  • Ruíz, Sandra
  • Carreño, Emilio
  • Crespo, María
  • García-Mayordomo, Julián
  • Bernal, Alberto
Tipo de Documento: Ponencia en Congreso o Jornada (Póster)
Título del Evento: AGU Meeting of the Americas
Fechas del Evento: 14/05/2013 - 17/05/2013
Lugar del Evento: Cancún, México
Título del Libro: Proceedings of the 2013 Meeting of the Americas
Fecha: 2013
Materias:
Palabras Clave Informales: Seismos.
Escuela: E.T.S.I. en Topografía, Geodesia y Cartografía (UPM)
Departamento: Ingeniería Topográfica y Cartografía [hasta 2014]
Licencias Creative Commons: Reconocimiento - Sin obra derivada - No comercial

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Resumen

In this paper we present a global overview of the recent study carried out in Spain for the new hazard map, which final goal is the revision of the Building Code in our country (NCSE-02). The study was carried our for a working group joining experts from The Instituto Geografico Nacional (IGN) and the Technical University of Madrid (UPM) , being the different phases of the work supervised by an expert Committee integrated by national experts from public institutions involved in subject of seismic hazard. The PSHA method (Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment) has been followed, quantifying the epistemic uncertainties through a logic tree and the aleatory ones linked to variability of parameters by means of probability density functions and Monte Carlo simulations. In a first phase, the inputs have been prepared, which essentially are: 1) a project catalogue update and homogenization at Mw 2) proposal of zoning models and source characterization 3) calibration of Ground Motion Prediction Equations (GMPE’s) with actual data and development of a local model with data collected in Spain for Mw < 5.5. In a second phase, a sensitivity analysis of the different input options on hazard results has been carried out in order to have criteria for defining the branches of the logic tree and their weights. Finally, the hazard estimation was done with the logic tree shown in figure 1, including nodes for quantifying uncertainties corresponding to: 1) method for estimation of hazard (zoning and zoneless); 2) zoning models, 3) GMPE combinations used and 4) regression method for estimation of source parameters. In addition, the aleatory uncertainties corresponding to the magnitude of the events, recurrence parameters and maximum magnitude for each zone have been also considered including probability density functions and Monte Carlo simulations The main conclusions of the study are presented here, together with the obtained results in terms of PGA and other spectral accelerations SA (T) for return periods of 475, 975 and 2475 years. The map of the coefficient of variation (COV) are also represented to give an idea of the zones where the dispersion among results are the highest and the zones where the results are robust.

Más información

ID de Registro: 26694
Identificador DC: http://oa.upm.es/26694/
Identificador OAI: oai:oa.upm.es:26694
URL Oficial: http://moa.agu.org/2013/
Depositado por: Memoria Investigacion
Depositado el: 06 Ago 2014 13:06
Ultima Modificación: 01 Oct 2014 14:03
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