A model to calculate consistent atmospheric emission projections and its application to Spain

Lumbreras Martin, Julio and Borge García, Rafael and Andrés Almeida, Juan Manuel de and Rodríguez Hurtado, María Encarnación (2008). A model to calculate consistent atmospheric emission projections and its application to Spain. "Atmospheric Environment", v. 42 (n. 21); pp. 5251-5266. ISSN 1352-2310. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2008.02.067.

Description

Title: A model to calculate consistent atmospheric emission projections and its application to Spain
Author/s:
  • Lumbreras Martin, Julio
  • Borge García, Rafael
  • Andrés Almeida, Juan Manuel de
  • Rodríguez Hurtado, María Encarnación
Item Type: Article
Título de Revista/Publicación: Atmospheric Environment
Date: July 2008
Volume: 42
Subjects:
Freetext Keywords: Air pollution; model; emission projections; projections uncertainty; QA/QC
Faculty: E.T.S.I. Industriales (UPM)
Department: Ingeniería Química Industrial y del Medio Ambiente
Creative Commons Licenses: Recognition - No derivative works - Non commercial

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Abstract

Global warming and air quality are headline environmental issues of our time and policy must preempt negative international effects with forward-looking strategies. As part of the revision of the European National Emission Ceilings Directive, atmospheric emission projections for European Union countries are being calculated. These projections are useful to drive European air quality analyses and to support wide-scale decision-making. However, when evaluating specific policies and measures at sectoral level, a more detailed approach is needed. This paper presents an original methodology to evaluate emission projections. Emission projections are calculated for each emitting activity that has emissions under three scenarios: without measures (business as usual), with measures (baseline) and with additional measures (target). The methodology developed allows the estimation of highly disaggregated multi-pollutant, consistent emissions for a whole country or region. In order to assure consistency with past emissions included in atmospheric emission inventories and coherence among the individual activities, the consistent emission projection (CEP) model incorporates harmonization and integration criteria as well as quality assurance/quality check (QA/QC) procedures. This study includes a sensitivity analysis as a first approach to uncertainty evaluation. The aim of the model presented in this contribution is to support decision-making process through the assessment of future emission scenarios taking into account the effect of different detailed technical and non-technical measures and it may also constitute the basis for air quality modelling. The system is designed to produce the information and formats related to international reporting requirements and it allows performing a comparison of national results with lower resolution models such as RAINS/GAINS. The methodology has been successfully applied and tested to evaluate Spanish emission projections up to 2020 for 26 pollutants but the methodology could be adopted for any particular region for different purposes, especially for European countries.

More information

Item ID: 2682
DC Identifier: http://oa.upm.es/2682/
OAI Identifier: oai:oa.upm.es:2682
DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2008.02.067
Official URL: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/246/description#description
Deposited by: Memoria Investigacion
Deposited on: 25 Mar 2010 09:57
Last Modified: 01 Sep 2017 18:20
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