Modelling uncertainty of flood quantile estimation at ungauged sites by Bayesian networks

Santillán Sánchez, David and Mediero Orduña, Luis Jesús and Garrote de Marcos, Luis (2013). Modelling uncertainty of flood quantile estimation at ungauged sites by Bayesian networks. "Journal of hydroinformatics" ; pp. 1-17. ISSN 1464-7141. https://doi.org/10.2166/hydro.2013.065.

Description

Title: Modelling uncertainty of flood quantile estimation at ungauged sites by Bayesian networks
Author/s:
  • Santillán Sánchez, David
  • Mediero Orduña, Luis Jesús
  • Garrote de Marcos, Luis
Item Type: Article
Título de Revista/Publicación: Journal of hydroinformatics
Date: 30 November 2013
ISSN: 1464-7141
Subjects:
Faculty: E.T.S.I. Caminos, Canales y Puertos (UPM)
Department: Ingeniería Civil: Hidráulica y Energética [hasta 2014]
Creative Commons Licenses: Recognition - No derivative works - Non commercial

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Abstract

Prediction at ungauged sites is essential for water resources planning and management. Ungauged sites have no observations about the magnitude of floods, but some site and basin characteristics are known. Regression models relate physiographic and climatic basin characteristics to flood quantiles, which can be estimated from observed data at gauged sites. However, these models assume linear relationships between variables Prediction intervals are estimated by the variance of the residuals in the estimated model. Furthermore, the effect of the uncertainties in the explanatory variables on the dependent variable cannot be assessed. This paper presents a methodology to propagate the uncertainties that arise in the process of predicting flood quantiles at ungauged basins by a regression model. In addition, Bayesian networks were explored as a feasible tool for predicting flood quantiles at ungauged sites. Bayesian networks benefit from taking into account uncertainties thanks to their probabilistic nature. They are able to capture non-linear relationships between variables and they give a probability distribution of discharges as result. The methodology was applied to a case study in the Tagus basin in Spain.

More information

Item ID: 29464
DC Identifier: http://oa.upm.es/29464/
OAI Identifier: oai:oa.upm.es:29464
DOI: 10.2166/hydro.2013.065
Official URL: http://www.iwaponline.com/jh/up/default.htm
Deposited by: Memoria Investigacion
Deposited on: 03 Jul 2014 10:29
Last Modified: 26 Jun 2018 14:07
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