How do various maize crop models vary in their responses to climate change factors?

Bassu, Simona and Brisson, Nadine and Durand, Jean-Louis and Boote, Kenneth J. and Lizaso Oñate, Jon Iñaqui and Jones, J.W. and Rosenzweig, Cynthia and Ruane, Alex C. and Adam, Myriam and Baron, Christian and Basso, Bruno and Biernath, Christian and Boogaard, Hendrik and Conijn, Sjaak and Corbeels, Marc and Deryng, Delphine and Sanctis, Giacomo de and Gayler, Sebastian and Grassini, Patricio and Hatfield, Jerry and Hoek, Steven and Izarurralde, César and Jongschaap, Raymond and Kemanian, Armen R. and Kersabaum, K. Christian and Kim, Soo-Hyung and Kumar, Naresh S. and Makowski, David and Müller, Christoph and Nendel, Claas and Priesack, Eckart and Pravia, Maria Virginia and Sau Sau, Federico and Shcherbak, Iurii and Tao, Fulu and Texeira, Edmar and Timlin, Dennis and Waha, Katharina (2013). How do various maize crop models vary in their responses to climate change factors?. "Global Change Biology", v. 20 (n. 7); pp. 2301-2320. ISSN 1354-1013.


Title: How do various maize crop models vary in their responses to climate change factors?
  • Bassu, Simona
  • Brisson, Nadine
  • Durand, Jean-Louis
  • Boote, Kenneth J.
  • Lizaso Oñate, Jon Iñaqui
  • Jones, J.W.
  • Rosenzweig, Cynthia
  • Ruane, Alex C.
  • Adam, Myriam
  • Baron, Christian
  • Basso, Bruno
  • Biernath, Christian
  • Boogaard, Hendrik
  • Conijn, Sjaak
  • Corbeels, Marc
  • Deryng, Delphine
  • Sanctis, Giacomo de
  • Gayler, Sebastian
  • Grassini, Patricio
  • Hatfield, Jerry
  • Hoek, Steven
  • Izarurralde, César
  • Jongschaap, Raymond
  • Kemanian, Armen R.
  • Kersabaum, K. Christian
  • Kim, Soo-Hyung
  • Kumar, Naresh S.
  • Makowski, David
  • Müller, Christoph
  • Nendel, Claas
  • Priesack, Eckart
  • Pravia, Maria Virginia
  • Sau Sau, Federico
  • Shcherbak, Iurii
  • Tao, Fulu
  • Texeira, Edmar
  • Timlin, Dennis
  • Waha, Katharina
Item Type: Article
Título de Revista/Publicación: Global Change Biology
Date: July 2013
Volume: 20
Faculty: E.T.S.I. Agrónomos (UPM) [antigua denominación]
Department: Otro
Creative Commons Licenses: Recognition - No derivative works - Non commercial

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Comments This article is a U.S. government work, and is not subject to copyright in the United States. Abstract Potential consequences of climate change on crop production can be studied using mechanistic crop simulation models. While a broad variety of maize simulation models exist, it is not known whether different models diverge on grain yield responses to changes in climatic factors, or whether they agree in their general trends related to phenology, growth, and yield. With the goal of analyzing the sensitivity of simulated yields to changes in temperature and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations [CO2], we present the largest maize crop model intercomparison to date, including 23 different models. These models were evaluated for four locations representing a wide range of maize production conditions in the world: Lusignan (France), Ames (USA), Rio Verde (Brazil) and Morogoro (Tanzania). While individual models differed considerably in absolute yield simulation at the four sites, an ensemble of a minimum number of models was able to simulate absolute yields accurately at the four sites even with low data for calibration, thus suggesting that using an ensemble of models has merit. Temperature increase had strong negative influence on modeled yield response of roughly 0.5 Mg ha 1 per °C. Doubling [CO2] from 360 to 720 lmol mol 1 increased grain yield by 7.5% on average across models and the sites. That would therefore make temperature the main factor altering maize yields at the end of this century. Furthermore, there was a large uncertainty in the yield response to [CO2] among models. Model responses to temperature and [CO2] did not differ whether models were simulated with low calibration information or, simulated with high level of calibration information.

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Item ID: 31081
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Deposited by: Memoria Investigacion
Deposited on: 08 Oct 2014 16:46
Last Modified: 21 Jun 2016 08:26
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