Traffic Risk in toll motorway concessions in Spain: An analysis of the ramp-up period.

Baeza Muñoz, Mª de los Ángeles y Vassallo Magro, José Manuel (2008). Traffic Risk in toll motorway concessions in Spain: An analysis of the ramp-up period.. En: "Third International Conference on Funding Transport Infrastructure, 10th 'Journée Transport'", 19/06/2008-20/06/2008, París.

Descripción

Título: Traffic Risk in toll motorway concessions in Spain: An analysis of the ramp-up period.
Autor/es:
  • Baeza Muñoz, Mª de los Ángeles
  • Vassallo Magro, José Manuel
Tipo de Documento: Ponencia en Congreso o Jornada (Artículo)
Título del Evento: Third International Conference on Funding Transport Infrastructure, 10th 'Journée Transport'
Fechas del Evento: 19/06/2008-20/06/2008
Lugar del Evento: París
Título del Libro: Third International Conference on Funding Transport Infrastructure, 10th 'Journée Transport'
Fecha: 2008
Materias:
Escuela: E.T.S.I. Caminos, Canales y Puertos (UPM)
Departamento: Ingeniería Civil: Transportes [hasta 2014]
Licencias Creative Commons: Reconocimiento - Sin obra derivada - No comercial

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Resumen

This paper analyzes the behaviour of actual traffic versus the traffic declared by the concessionaire in its offer in toll motorway concessions in Spain during the first few years of operation (ramp-up period). We obtain the result that, on average, there is a clear bias towards overestimation though the behaviour of any single concession may not have much to do with the average. In addition, we found that unlike what happens with annual traffic volumes, traffic growth rates are mostly underestimated by concessionaires in the ramp-up period. We explain this trend towards overestimation in the strategic behaviour of the bidders in the tender rather than in systematic modelling errors. The cause of this strategic behaviour lies in the willingness to renegotiate as shown by the government of Spain when actual traffic turns out to be lower than expected.

Más información

ID de Registro: 3164
Identificador DC: http://oa.upm.es/3164/
Identificador OAI: oai:oa.upm.es:3164
URL Oficial: http://www.pse.ens.fr
Depositado por: Memoria Investigacion
Depositado el: 31 May 2010 11:47
Ultima Modificación: 20 Abr 2016 12:42
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