Traffic Risk in toll motorway concessions in Spain: An analysis of the ramp-up period.

Baeza Muñoz, Mª de los Ángeles and Vassallo Magro, José Manuel (2008). Traffic Risk in toll motorway concessions in Spain: An analysis of the ramp-up period.. In: "Third International Conference on Funding Transport Infrastructure, 10th 'Journée Transport'", 19/06/2008-20/06/2008, París.

Description

Title: Traffic Risk in toll motorway concessions in Spain: An analysis of the ramp-up period.
Author/s:
  • Baeza Muñoz, Mª de los Ángeles
  • Vassallo Magro, José Manuel
Item Type: Presentation at Congress or Conference (Article)
Event Title: Third International Conference on Funding Transport Infrastructure, 10th 'Journée Transport'
Event Dates: 19/06/2008-20/06/2008
Event Location: París
Title of Book: Third International Conference on Funding Transport Infrastructure, 10th 'Journée Transport'
Date: 2008
Subjects:
Faculty: E.T.S.I. Caminos, Canales y Puertos (UPM)
Department: Ingeniería Civil: Transportes [hasta 2014]
Creative Commons Licenses: Recognition - No derivative works - Non commercial

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Abstract

This paper analyzes the behaviour of actual traffic versus the traffic declared by the concessionaire in its offer in toll motorway concessions in Spain during the first few years of operation (ramp-up period). We obtain the result that, on average, there is a clear bias towards overestimation though the behaviour of any single concession may not have much to do with the average. In addition, we found that unlike what happens with annual traffic volumes, traffic growth rates are mostly underestimated by concessionaires in the ramp-up period. We explain this trend towards overestimation in the strategic behaviour of the bidders in the tender rather than in systematic modelling errors. The cause of this strategic behaviour lies in the willingness to renegotiate as shown by the government of Spain when actual traffic turns out to be lower than expected.

More information

Item ID: 3164
DC Identifier: http://oa.upm.es/3164/
OAI Identifier: oai:oa.upm.es:3164
Official URL: http://www.pse.ens.fr
Deposited by: Memoria Investigacion
Deposited on: 31 May 2010 11:47
Last Modified: 20 Apr 2016 12:42
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