Change of extreme rainfall indexes at Ebro River Basin

Valencia Delfa, José Luis and Tarquis Alfonso, Ana Maria and Saa Requejo, Antonio and Gascó Montes, José María (2012). Change of extreme rainfall indexes at Ebro River Basin. "Natural Hazards And Earth System Sciences", v. 12 (n. 7); pp. 2127-2137. ISSN 1561-8633. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-12-2127-2012.

Description

Title: Change of extreme rainfall indexes at Ebro River Basin
Author/s:
  • Valencia Delfa, José Luis
  • Tarquis Alfonso, Ana Maria
  • Saa Requejo, Antonio
  • Gascó Montes, José María
Item Type: Article
Título de Revista/Publicación: Natural Hazards And Earth System Sciences
Date: July 2012
Volume: 12
Subjects:
Faculty: E.T.S.I. Agrónomos (UPM) [antigua denominación]
Department: Matemática Aplicada a la Ingeniería Agronómica [hasta 2014]
Creative Commons Licenses: Recognition - No derivative works - Non commercial

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Abstract

The purpose of this work is to provide a description of the heavy rainfall phenomenon on statistical tools from a Spanish region. We want to quantify the effect of the climate change to verify the rapidity of its evolution across the variation of the probability distributions. Our conclusions have special interest for the agrarian insurances, which may make estimates of costs more realistically. In this work, the analysis mainly focuses on: The distribution of consecutive days without rain for each gauge stations and season. We estimate density Kernel functions and Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) for a network of station from the Ebro River basin until a threshold value u. We can establish a relation between distributional parameters and regional characteristics. Moreover we analyze especially the tail of the probability distribution. These tails are governed by law of power means that the number of events n can be expressed as the power of another quantity x : n(x) = x? . ? can be estimated as the slope of log-log plot the number of events and the size. The most convenient way to analyze n(x) is using the empirical probability distribution. Pr(X mayor que x) ? x-?. The distribution of rainfall over percentile of order 0.95 from wet days at the seasonal scale and in a yearly scale with the same treatment of tails than in the previous section.

More information

Item ID: 34054
DC Identifier: http://oa.upm.es/34054/
OAI Identifier: oai:oa.upm.es:34054
DOI: 10.5194/nhess-12-2127-2012
Official URL: http://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/12/2127/2012/nhess-12-2127-2012.html
Deposited by: Memoria Investigacion
Deposited on: 06 Mar 2015 16:15
Last Modified: 06 Mar 2015 16:15
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