Change of extreme rainfall indexes at Ebro River Basin

Valencia Delfa, José Luis; Tarquis Alfonso, Ana Maria; Saa Requejo, Antonio y Gascó Montes, José María (2012). Change of extreme rainfall indexes at Ebro River Basin. "Natural Hazards And Earth System Sciences", v. 12 (n. 7); pp. 2127-2137. ISSN 1561-8633. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-12-2127-2012.

Descripción

Título: Change of extreme rainfall indexes at Ebro River Basin
Autor/es:
  • Valencia Delfa, José Luis
  • Tarquis Alfonso, Ana Maria
  • Saa Requejo, Antonio
  • Gascó Montes, José María
Tipo de Documento: Artículo
Título de Revista/Publicación: Natural Hazards And Earth System Sciences
Fecha: Julio 2012
Volumen: 12
Materias:
Escuela: E.T.S.I. Agrónomos (UPM) [antigua denominación]
Departamento: Matemática Aplicada a la Ingeniería Agronómica [hasta 2014]
Licencias Creative Commons: Reconocimiento - Sin obra derivada - No comercial

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Resumen

The purpose of this work is to provide a description of the heavy rainfall phenomenon on statistical tools from a Spanish region. We want to quantify the effect of the climate change to verify the rapidity of its evolution across the variation of the probability distributions. Our conclusions have special interest for the agrarian insurances, which may make estimates of costs more realistically. In this work, the analysis mainly focuses on: The distribution of consecutive days without rain for each gauge stations and season. We estimate density Kernel functions and Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) for a network of station from the Ebro River basin until a threshold value u. We can establish a relation between distributional parameters and regional characteristics. Moreover we analyze especially the tail of the probability distribution. These tails are governed by law of power means that the number of events n can be expressed as the power of another quantity x : n(x) = x? . ? can be estimated as the slope of log-log plot the number of events and the size. The most convenient way to analyze n(x) is using the empirical probability distribution. Pr(X mayor que x) ? x-?. The distribution of rainfall over percentile of order 0.95 from wet days at the seasonal scale and in a yearly scale with the same treatment of tails than in the previous section.

Más información

ID de Registro: 34054
Identificador DC: http://oa.upm.es/34054/
Identificador OAI: oai:oa.upm.es:34054
Identificador DOI: 10.5194/nhess-12-2127-2012
URL Oficial: http://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/12/2127/2012/nhess-12-2127-2012.html
Depositado por: Memoria Investigacion
Depositado el: 06 Mar 2015 16:15
Ultima Modificación: 06 Mar 2015 16:15
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