Calvez, M.; Brulhet, J.; Noblet, N.; Paillard, D.; Degnan, P.; Becker, A.; Cortes, A.; Pinedo, P.; Recreo Jiménez, Fernando; Agüero Prieto, Almudena; Ruiz García, Casilda; Lomba Falcón, Luis; Torres Pérez-Hidalgo, Trinidad José; Ortiz Menéndez, José Eugenio y Lucini, Manuel
Deliverable D3: Global climatic features over the next million years and recommendation for specific situations to be considered. Work Package 2, Simulation of the future evolution of the biosphere system using the hierarchical strategy. Modelling Sequential Biosphere Systems under Climate Change for Radioactive Waste Disposal (BIOCLIM).
Monografía (Informe de Proyectos).
E.T.S.I. Minas (UPM) [antigua denominación], Francia.
The BIOCLIM project aims at assessing the
possible long-term impacts of climate change
on the safety of waste repositories in deep
formations using climate simulations of the long-term
climate in various European areas. One of the
objectives of the project is to develop two strategies for
representing sequential climatic changes to the
geosphere-biosphere system for different sites over
Europe, addressing the time scale of one million years.
The results of this work will be interpreted in terms of
global or regional changes of climate and of vegetation.
The first strategy (hierarchical strategy) will use the full
hierarchy of existing climate models (a climate model is
a numerical simplified representation of the climate
system behaviour and evolution). Simple models (LLN
2-D NH and threshold models; see the description here
after) will simulate the overall long-term evolution of the
global climate. Their results will then be used as inputs
to more complex models (LMD climate models possibly
coupled with vegetation models, either SECHIBA or
ORCHIDE) and finally climate and vegetation cover will
be determined for specific sites at specific times. A
second strategy (integrated strategy) will consist in
building an integrated climate model, which represents
most of the physical mechanisms for studying long-term
climatic variations. The results will then be interpreted
on a regional scale. This deliverable is the first step of
the hierarchical strategy. The purpose of this deliverable
is to identify and justify some specific climatic
situations amongst different long-term simulations that
are of interest for assessing the safety of radioactive
waste repository sites and that will be further studied
with GCMs (General Circulation Model).