Deliverable D4/5: Global climatic characteristics, including vegetation and seasonal cycles over Europe, for snapshots over the next 200,000 years. Work Package 2, Simulation of the future evolution of the biosphere system using the hierarchical strategy. Modelling Sequential Biosphere Systems under Climate Change for Radioactive Waste Disposal (BIOCLIM)

Brulhet, J. and Texier, D. and Noblet, N. and Paillard, D. and Degnan, P. and Becker, A. and Cortes, A. and Pinedo, P. and Recreo Jiménez, Fernando and Agüero Prieto, Almudena and Ruiz García, Casilda and Lomba Falcón, Luis and Torres Pérez-Hidalgo, Trinidad José and Lucini, Manuel and Ortiz Menéndez, José Eugenio and Marbaix, P. and Kageyama, M. (2003). Deliverable D4/5: Global climatic characteristics, including vegetation and seasonal cycles over Europe, for snapshots over the next 200,000 years. Work Package 2, Simulation of the future evolution of the biosphere system using the hierarchical strategy. Modelling Sequential Biosphere Systems under Climate Change for Radioactive Waste Disposal (BIOCLIM). Monografía (Project Report). E.T.S.I. Minas (UPM), Francia.

Description

Title: Deliverable D4/5: Global climatic characteristics, including vegetation and seasonal cycles over Europe, for snapshots over the next 200,000 years. Work Package 2, Simulation of the future evolution of the biosphere system using the hierarchical strategy. Modelling Sequential Biosphere Systems under Climate Change for Radioactive Waste Disposal (BIOCLIM)
Author/s:
  • Brulhet, J.
  • Texier, D.
  • Noblet, N.
  • Paillard, D.
  • Degnan, P.
  • Becker, A.
  • Cortes, A.
  • Pinedo, P.
  • Recreo Jiménez, Fernando
  • Agüero Prieto, Almudena
  • Ruiz García, Casilda
  • Lomba Falcón, Luis
  • Torres Pérez-Hidalgo, Trinidad José
  • Lucini, Manuel
  • Ortiz Menéndez, José Eugenio
  • Marbaix, P.
  • Kageyama, M.
Item Type: Monograph (Project Report)
Date: 2003
Subjects:
Faculty: E.T.S.I. Minas (UPM)
Department: Ingeniería Geológica [hasta 2014]
Creative Commons Licenses: Recognition - No derivative works - Non commercial

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Abstract

The aim of the BIOCLIM project is to develop and present techniques that can be used to develop self-consistent patterns of possible future climate changes over the next million years (climate scenarios), and to demonstrate how these climate scenarios can be used in assessments of the long-term safety of nuclear waste repository sites. Within the project, two strategies are implemented to predict climate change. The first is the hierarchical strategy, in which a hierarchy of climate models is used to investigate the evolution of climate over the period of interest. These models vary from very simple 2-D and threshold models, which simulate interactions between only a few aspects of the earth system, through general circulation models (GCMs) and vegetation models, which simulate in great detail the dynamics and physics of the atmosphere, ocean, and biosphere, to regional models, which focus in particular on the European region and the specific areas of interest. The second strategy is the integrated strategy, in which intermediate complexity climate models are developed, and used to consecutively simulate the development of the earth system over many millennia. Although these models are relatively simple compared to a GCM, they are more advanced than 2D models, and do include physical descriptions of the biosphere, cryosphere, atmosphere and ocean. This deliverable, D4/5, focuses on the hierarchical strategy, and in particular the GCM and vegetation model simulation of possible future climates. Deliverable D3 documented the first step in this strategy. The Louvain-la-Neuve 2-D climate model (LLN-2D) was used to estimate (among other variables) annual mean temperatures and ice volume in the Northern Hemisphere over the next 1 million years. It was driven by the calculated evolution of orbital parameters, and plausible scenarios of CO2 concentration. From the results, 3 future time periods within the next 200,000 years were identified as being extreme, that is either significantly warmer or cooler than the present. The next stage in the hierarchical strategy was to use a GCM and biosphere model, to simulate in more detail these extreme time periods.

More information

Item ID: 3478
DC Identifier: http://oa.upm.es/3478/
OAI Identifier: oai:oa.upm.es:3478
Official URL: http://www.andra.fr/bioclim/
Deposited by: Biblioteca ETSI Minas y Energía
Deposited on: 30 Jun 2010 08:07
Last Modified: 20 Apr 2016 13:02
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