Brulhet, J. and Texier, D. and Noblet, N. and Paillard, D. and Degnan, P. and Becker, A. and Cortes, A. and Pinedo, P. and Recreo Jiménez, Fernando and Agüero Prieto, Almudena and Ruiz García, Casilda and Lomba Falcón, Luis and Torres Pérez-Hidalgo, Trinidad José and Lucini, Manuel and Ortiz Menéndez, José Eugenio and Marbaix, P. and Kageyama, M. and Lunt, D.
Deliverable D7: Continuous climate evolution scenarios over western Europe (1000 km) scale. Work Package 2, Simulation of the future evolution of the biosphere system using the hierarchical strategy. Modelling Sequential Biosphere Systems under Climate Change for Radioactive Waste Disposal (BIOCLIM).
Monografía (Project Report).
E.T.S.I. Minas (UPM), Francia.
The overall aim of BIOCLIM is to assess the
possible long term impacts due to climate
change on the safety of radioactive waste
repositories in deep formations. This aim is addressed
through the following specific objectives:
• Development of practical and innovative strategies
for representing sequential climatic changes to the
geosphere-biosphere system for existing sites over
central Europe, addressing the timescale of one
million years, which is relevant to the geological
disposal of radioactive waste.
• Exploration and evaluation of the potential effects of
climate change on the nature of the biosphere
systems used to assess the environmental impact.
• Dissemination of information on the new
methodologies and the results obtained from the
project among the international waste management
community for use in performance assessments of
potential or planned radioactive waste repositories.
A key point of the project is therefore to develop
strategies for representing sequential long-term
climatic changes by addressing time scales of
relevance to geological disposal of solid radioactive
wastes. The integrated strategy, which first step is
described in this deliverable (D7), consists of building
an integrated, dynamic climate model, to represent all
the known important mechanisms for long term
climatic variations. The time-dependent results will then
be interpreted in terms of regional climate using rulebased
and statistical downscaling approaches.
Therefore, the continuous simulation of the climate
evolution of the next 200 000 years selected for study
is a major objective of the BIOCLIM project. This
requires models that account for the simultaneous
evolution of the atmosphere, biosphere, land-ice and
the ocean. To be able to perform several 200 000-yearlong
transient climate simulations, the models have to
include all these components, but also need to be
simple enough to run fast. Therefore, climate models of
intermediate complexity have been chosen to complete
this part of the BIOCLIM project.
In the present deliverable, we report on the results
of two such models, MoBidiC (Louvain-la-Neuve) and
CLIMBER-GREMLINS (LSCE). The overall objective of
the work presented here is the simulation of the climate
of the next 200 000 years for three different CO2
scenarios [Ref.1]. However, both models used for
this work have been either modified for the project
(MoBidiC) or developed within the project (CLIMBERGREMLINS).
Therefore their performance, and the
modifications and developments needed to be
documented, especially as far as their ability to
reproduce past and different climates is concerned.
Therefore, a large section of the present deliverable is
devoted to the evaluation of the models through past
The deliverable is structured as follows: first, a brief
description of the models is given. In the second
section, results from the models for past climate
situations are presented. The third section deals with
the future climate simulations devised for the BIOCLIM
project: for each CO2 scenario, the results of the two
models are compared.
It is emphasized that the model results, especially
those for CLIMBER-GREMLINS, should be regarded as
illustrations of possibilities rather than absolute
predictions of climate evolution. The novel approach to
long-term climate change adopted in BIOCLIM is based
on research tools under continuing development,
notably, the CLIMBER-GREMLINS model.