Economic impacts of climate change on agrifood markets: A bio-economic approach with a focus on the EU

Abstract

Projections for world food production and prices play a crucial role to evaluate and tackle future food security challenges. Understanding how these projections will be affected by climate change is the main objective of this study. By means of a bio-economic approach we assess the economic impacts of climate change on agrifood markets, providing both a global analysis and a regionalised evaluation within the EU. To account for uncertainty, we analyse the IPCC emission scenario A1B for the 2030 horizon under several simulation scenarios that differ in (1) the climate projection, from HadleyCM3 (warm) or ECHAM5 (mild) global circulation models; and (2) the influence of CO2 effects. Results of this study indicate that agrifood market projections to 2030 are very sensitive to climate change uncertainties and, in particular to the magnitude of the carbon fertilization effect.