Temperature and precipitation effects on wheat yield across a European transect: a crop model ensemble analysis using impact response surfaces

Pirttioja, Nina; Carter, T. R.; Fronzek, S.; Bindi, Marco; Hoffmann, H.; Palosuo, Taru; Ruiz Ramos, Margarita; Tao, Fulu; Trnka, M.; Acutis, Marco; Asseng, Senthold; Baranowsk, Piotr; Basso, Bruno; Bodin, Per; Buis, Samuel; Cammarano, Davide; Deligios, Paola; Destain, Marie-France; Dumont, Benjamin; Ewert, Frank; Ferrise, Roberto; Fraçois, F.; Gaiser, Thomas; Hlavinka, P.; Jacquemin, I.; Kersebaum, K. C.; Kollas, Chris; Krzyszczak, Jaromir; Lorite, I. J.; Minet, Julien; Minguez Tudela, Maria Ines; Montesino, Manuel; Moriondo, Marco; Müller, Christoph; Nendel, Claas; Öztürk, Isik; Perego, Alessia; Rodríguez, A.; Ruane, Alex C.; Ruget, François; Sanna, Mattia; Semenov, Mikhail A.; Slawinski, Cezary; Stratonovitch, Pierre; Supit, Iwan; Waha, Katharina; Wang, E.; Wu, Lianhai; Zhao, Z. y Rötter, Reimund (2015). Temperature and precipitation effects on wheat yield across a European transect: a crop model ensemble analysis using impact response surfaces. "Climate Research", v. 65 ; pp. 87-105. ISSN 0936-577X. https://doi.org/10.3354/cr01322.

Descripción

Título: Temperature and precipitation effects on wheat yield across a European transect: a crop model ensemble analysis using impact response surfaces
Autor/es:
  • Pirttioja, Nina
  • Carter, T. R.
  • Fronzek, S.
  • Bindi, Marco
  • Hoffmann, H.
  • Palosuo, Taru
  • Ruiz Ramos, Margarita
  • Tao, Fulu
  • Trnka, M.
  • Acutis, Marco
  • Asseng, Senthold
  • Baranowsk, Piotr
  • Basso, Bruno
  • Bodin, Per
  • Buis, Samuel
  • Cammarano, Davide
  • Deligios, Paola
  • Destain, Marie-France
  • Dumont, Benjamin
  • Ewert, Frank
  • Ferrise, Roberto
  • Fraçois, F.
  • Gaiser, Thomas
  • Hlavinka, P.
  • Jacquemin, I.
  • Kersebaum, K. C.
  • Kollas, Chris
  • Krzyszczak, Jaromir
  • Lorite, I. J.
  • Minet, Julien
  • Minguez Tudela, Maria Ines
  • Montesino, Manuel
  • Moriondo, Marco
  • Müller, Christoph
  • Nendel, Claas
  • Öztürk, Isik
  • Perego, Alessia
  • Rodríguez, A.
  • Ruane, Alex C.
  • Ruget, François
  • Sanna, Mattia
  • Semenov, Mikhail A.
  • Slawinski, Cezary
  • Stratonovitch, Pierre
  • Supit, Iwan
  • Waha, Katharina
  • Wang, E.
  • Wu, Lianhai
  • Zhao, Z.
  • Rötter, Reimund
Tipo de Documento: Artículo
Título de Revista/Publicación: Climate Research
Fecha: 2015
Volumen: 65
Materias:
Escuela: E.T.S.I. Agrónomos (UPM) [antigua denominación]
Departamento: Producción Agraria
Licencias Creative Commons: Reconocimiento - Sin obra derivada - No comercial

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Resumen

This study explored the utility of the impact response surface (IRS) approach for investigating model ensemble crop yield responses under a large range of changes in climate. IRSs of spring and winter wheat Triticum aestivum yields were constructed from a 26-member ensemble of process-based crop simulation models for sites in Finland, Germany and Spain across a latitudinal transect. The sensitivity of modelled yield to systematic increments of changes in temperature (-2 to +9°C) and precipitation (-50 to +50%) was tested by modifying values of baseline (1981 to 2010) daily weather, with CO2 concentration fixed at 360 ppm. The IRS approach offers an effective method of portraying model behaviour under changing climate as well as advantages for analysing, comparing and presenting results from multi-model ensemble simulations. Though individual model behaviour occasionally departed markedly from the average, ensemble median responses across sites and crop varieties indicated that yields decline with higher temperatures and decreased precipitation and increase with higher precipitation. Across the uncertainty ranges defined for the IRSs, yields were more sensitive to temperature than precipitation changes at the Finnish site while sensitivities were mixed at the German and Spanish sites. Precipitation effects diminished under higher temperature changes. While the bivariate and multi-model characteristics of the analysis impose some limits to interpretation, the IRS approach nonetheless provides additional insights into sensitivities to inter-model and inter-annual variability. Taken together, these sensitivities may help to pinpoint processes such as heat stress, vernalisation or drought effects requiring refinement in future model development.

Más información

ID de Registro: 41427
Identificador DC: http://oa.upm.es/41427/
Identificador OAI: oai:oa.upm.es:41427
Identificador DOI: 10.3354/cr01322
URL Oficial: http://www.int-res.com/abstracts/cr/v65/p87-105/
Depositado por: Memoria Investigacion
Depositado el: 24 Jun 2016 17:43
Ultima Modificación: 24 Jun 2016 17:43
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