Temperature and precipitation effects on wheat yield across a European transect: a crop model ensemble analysis using impact response surfaces

Pirttioja, Nina and Carter, T. R. and Fronzek, S. and Bindi, Marco and Hoffmann, H. and Palosuo, Taru and Ruiz Ramos, Margarita and Tao, Fulu and Trnka, M. and Acutis, Marco and Asseng, Senthold and Baranowsk, Piotr and Basso, Bruno and Bodin, Per and Buis, Samuel and Cammarano, Davide and Deligios, Paola and Destain, Marie-France and Dumont, Benjamin and Ewert, Frank and Ferrise, Roberto and Fraçois, F. and Gaiser, Thomas and Hlavinka, P. and Jacquemin, I. and Kersebaum, K. C. and Kollas, Chris and Krzyszczak, Jaromir and Lorite, I. J. and Minet, Julien and Minguez Tudela, Maria Ines and Montesino, Manuel and Moriondo, Marco and Müller, Christoph and Nendel, Claas and Öztürk, Isik and Perego, Alessia and Rodríguez, A. and Ruane, Alex C. and Ruget, François and Sanna, Mattia and Semenov, Mikhail A. and Slawinski, Cezary and Stratonovitch, Pierre and Supit, Iwan and Waha, Katharina and Wang, E. and Wu, Lianhai and Zhao, Z. and Rötter, Reimund (2015). Temperature and precipitation effects on wheat yield across a European transect: a crop model ensemble analysis using impact response surfaces. "Climate Research", v. 65 ; pp. 87-105. ISSN 0936-577X. https://doi.org/10.3354/cr01322.

Description

Title: Temperature and precipitation effects on wheat yield across a European transect: a crop model ensemble analysis using impact response surfaces
Author/s:
  • Pirttioja, Nina
  • Carter, T. R.
  • Fronzek, S.
  • Bindi, Marco
  • Hoffmann, H.
  • Palosuo, Taru
  • Ruiz Ramos, Margarita
  • Tao, Fulu
  • Trnka, M.
  • Acutis, Marco
  • Asseng, Senthold
  • Baranowsk, Piotr
  • Basso, Bruno
  • Bodin, Per
  • Buis, Samuel
  • Cammarano, Davide
  • Deligios, Paola
  • Destain, Marie-France
  • Dumont, Benjamin
  • Ewert, Frank
  • Ferrise, Roberto
  • Fraçois, F.
  • Gaiser, Thomas
  • Hlavinka, P.
  • Jacquemin, I.
  • Kersebaum, K. C.
  • Kollas, Chris
  • Krzyszczak, Jaromir
  • Lorite, I. J.
  • Minet, Julien
  • Minguez Tudela, Maria Ines
  • Montesino, Manuel
  • Moriondo, Marco
  • Müller, Christoph
  • Nendel, Claas
  • Öztürk, Isik
  • Perego, Alessia
  • Rodríguez, A.
  • Ruane, Alex C.
  • Ruget, François
  • Sanna, Mattia
  • Semenov, Mikhail A.
  • Slawinski, Cezary
  • Stratonovitch, Pierre
  • Supit, Iwan
  • Waha, Katharina
  • Wang, E.
  • Wu, Lianhai
  • Zhao, Z.
  • Rötter, Reimund
Item Type: Article
Título de Revista/Publicación: Climate Research
Date: 2015
ISSN: 0936-577X
Volume: 65
Subjects:
Faculty: E.T.S.I. Agrónomos (UPM) [antigua denominación]
Department: Producción Agraria
Creative Commons Licenses: Recognition - No derivative works - Non commercial

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Abstract

This study explored the utility of the impact response surface (IRS) approach for investigating model ensemble crop yield responses under a large range of changes in climate. IRSs of spring and winter wheat Triticum aestivum yields were constructed from a 26-member ensemble of process-based crop simulation models for sites in Finland, Germany and Spain across a latitudinal transect. The sensitivity of modelled yield to systematic increments of changes in temperature (-2 to +9°C) and precipitation (-50 to +50%) was tested by modifying values of baseline (1981 to 2010) daily weather, with CO2 concentration fixed at 360 ppm. The IRS approach offers an effective method of portraying model behaviour under changing climate as well as advantages for analysing, comparing and presenting results from multi-model ensemble simulations. Though individual model behaviour occasionally departed markedly from the average, ensemble median responses across sites and crop varieties indicated that yields decline with higher temperatures and decreased precipitation and increase with higher precipitation. Across the uncertainty ranges defined for the IRSs, yields were more sensitive to temperature than precipitation changes at the Finnish site while sensitivities were mixed at the German and Spanish sites. Precipitation effects diminished under higher temperature changes. While the bivariate and multi-model characteristics of the analysis impose some limits to interpretation, the IRS approach nonetheless provides additional insights into sensitivities to inter-model and inter-annual variability. Taken together, these sensitivities may help to pinpoint processes such as heat stress, vernalisation or drought effects requiring refinement in future model development.

More information

Item ID: 41427
DC Identifier: http://oa.upm.es/41427/
OAI Identifier: oai:oa.upm.es:41427
DOI: 10.3354/cr01322
Official URL: http://www.int-res.com/abstracts/cr/v65/p87-105/
Deposited by: Memoria Investigacion
Deposited on: 24 Jun 2016 17:43
Last Modified: 24 Jun 2016 17:43
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