Heavy vehicle demand evolution in interurban toll roads: key explanatory variables in Spain

Gómez Sánchez, Juan and Vassallo Magro, José Manuel (2015). Heavy vehicle demand evolution in interurban toll roads: key explanatory variables in Spain. In: "Transportation Research Board 94th Annual Meeting", 11-15 enero 2015, Washington DC.

Description

Title: Heavy vehicle demand evolution in interurban toll roads: key explanatory variables in Spain
Author/s:
  • Gómez Sánchez, Juan
  • Vassallo Magro, José Manuel
Item Type: Presentation at Congress or Conference (Article)
Event Title: Transportation Research Board 94th Annual Meeting
Event Dates: 11-15 enero 2015
Event Location: Washington DC
Title of Book: TRB 94th Annual Meeting Compendium of Papers
Date: 2015
Subjects:
Freetext Keywords: Heavy vehicle traffic, road freight, toll road, demand elasticities, dynamic panel data, Spain
Faculty: E.T.S.I. Caminos, Canales y Puertos (UPM)
Department: Ingeniería Civil: Transporte y Territorio
Creative Commons Licenses: Recognition - No derivative works - Non commercial

Full text

[img] PDF - Users in campus UPM only - Requires a PDF viewer, such as GSview, Xpdf or Adobe Acrobat Reader
Download (490kB)

Abstract

Improving the knowledge of demand evolution over time is a key aspect in the evaluation of transport policies and in forecasting future investment needs. It becomes even more critical for the case of toll roads, which in recent decades has become an increasingly common device to fund road projects. However, literature regarding demand elasticity estimates in toll roads is sparse and leaves some important aspects to be analyzed in greater detail. In particular, previous research does not often disaggregate heavy vehicle demand from road traffic, so that the specific behavioral patterns of this traffic segment are not taken into account. Furthermore, GDP is the main socioeconomic variable most commonly chosen to explain road freight traffic growth over time. This paper seeks to determine the variables that better explain the evolution of heavy vehicle demand in toll roads over time. To that end, we present a dynamic panel data methodology aimed at identifying the key socioeconomic variables that explain the behavior of road freight traffic throughout the years. The results show that, despite the usual practice, GDP may not constitute a suitable explanatory variable for heavy vehicle demand. Rather, considering only the GDP of those sectors with a high impact on transport demand, such as construction or industry, leads to more consistent results. The methodology is applied to Spanish toll roads for the 1990-2011 period. This is an interesting case in the international context, as road freight demand has experienced an even greater reduction in Spain than elsewhere, since the beginning of the economic crisis in 2008.

More information

Item ID: 41534
DC Identifier: http://oa.upm.es/41534/
OAI Identifier: oai:oa.upm.es:41534
Official URL: http://www.trb.org/AnnualMeeting2015/AnnualMeeting2015.aspx
Deposited by: Memoria Investigacion
Deposited on: 26 Jul 2016 13:00
Last Modified: 03 Oct 2018 08:46
  • Logo InvestigaM (UPM)
  • Logo GEOUP4
  • Logo Open Access
  • Open Access
  • Logo Sherpa/Romeo
    Check whether the anglo-saxon journal in which you have published an article allows you to also publish it under open access.
  • Logo Dulcinea
    Check whether the spanish journal in which you have published an article allows you to also publish it under open access.
  • Logo de Recolecta
  • Logo del Observatorio I+D+i UPM
  • Logo de OpenCourseWare UPM