What role does climate change play in agricultural market uncertainty? An integrated assessment taking into account market-driven adjustments

Martínez Muñoz, Pilar and Blanco Fonseca, Maria and Van Doorslaer, Benjamin and Ramos, Fabien and Stanca Trufas, Lucian Emanuel (2015). What role does climate change play in agricultural market uncertainty? An integrated assessment taking into account market-driven adjustments. In: "29th ICAE", 08/08/2015-14/08/2015, Milan, Italy. p. 20.

Description

Title: What role does climate change play in agricultural market uncertainty? An integrated assessment taking into account market-driven adjustments
Author/s:
  • Martínez Muñoz, Pilar
  • Blanco Fonseca, Maria
  • Van Doorslaer, Benjamin
  • Ramos, Fabien
  • Stanca Trufas, Lucian Emanuel
Item Type: Presentation at Congress or Conference (Article)
Event Title: 29th ICAE
Event Dates: 08/08/2015-14/08/2015
Event Location: Milan, Italy
Title of Book: Agriculture in an Interconnected World
Date: 2015
Subjects:
Faculty: E.T.S.I. Agrónomos (UPM) [antigua denominación]
Department: Economía Agraria, Estadística y Gestión de Empresas
Creative Commons Licenses: Recognition - No derivative works - Non commercial

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Abstract

Recent studies point to climate change being one of the long-term drivers of agricultural market uncertainty. To advance in the understanding of the influence of climate change on future agricultural market developments, we compare a reference scenario for 2030 with alternative simulation scenarios that differ regarding: (1) emission scenarios; (2) climate projections; and (3) the consideration of carbon fertilization effects. For each simulation scenario, the CAPRI model provides global and EU-wide impacts of climate change on agricultural markets. Results show that climate change would considerably affect agrifood markets up to 2030. Nevertheless, market-driven adaptation strategies (production intensification, trade adjustments) would soften the impact of yield shocks on supply and demand. As a result, regional changes in production would be lower than foreseen by other studies focused on supply effects.

More information

Item ID: 42098
DC Identifier: http://oa.upm.es/42098/
OAI Identifier: oai:oa.upm.es:42098
Official URL: http://www.icae2015.org/?q=content/welcome-icae-2015
Deposited by: Memoria Investigacion
Deposited on: 28 Jun 2016 16:57
Last Modified: 28 Jun 2016 16:57
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