Using a nonparametric PV model to forecast AC power output of PV plants

Almeida, Marcelo Pinho and Perpiñan Lamigueiro, Oscar and Narvarte Fernández, Luis (2015). Using a nonparametric PV model to forecast AC power output of PV plants. In: "31st European Photovoltaic Solar Energy Conference and Exhibition: EUPVSEC 2015", 14/09/2015-18/09/2015, Hamburg, Germany. ISBN 3-936338-39-6. pp. 2227-2233.

Description

Title: Using a nonparametric PV model to forecast AC power output of PV plants
Author/s:
  • Almeida, Marcelo Pinho
  • Perpiñan Lamigueiro, Oscar
  • Narvarte Fernández, Luis
Item Type: Presentation at Congress or Conference (Article)
Event Title: 31st European Photovoltaic Solar Energy Conference and Exhibition: EUPVSEC 2015
Event Dates: 14/09/2015-18/09/2015
Event Location: Hamburg, Germany
Title of Book: EU PVSEC Proceedings
Date: September 2015
ISBN: 3-936338-39-6
Subjects:
Freetext Keywords: PV output power forecast; Numerical weather prediction; Quantile regression forests
Faculty: E.T.S.I. Diseño Industrial (UPM)
Department: Ingeniería Eléctrica, Electrónica Automática y Física Aplicada
Creative Commons Licenses: Recognition - No derivative works - Non commercial

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Abstract

In this paper, a methodology using a nonparametric model is used to forecast AC power output of PV plants using as inputs several forecasts of meteorological variables from a Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model and actual AC power measurements of PV plants. The methodology was built upon the R environment and uses Quantile Regression Forests as machine learning tool to forecast the AC power with a confidence interval. Real data from five PV plants was used to validate the methodology, and results show that the daily production of individual plants can be predicted with a skill score up to 0.361.

Funding Projects

TypeCodeAcronymLeaderTitle
FP7308468PVCROPSUniversidad Politécnica de MadridPhotoVoltaic Cost reduction, Reliability, Operational performance, Prediction and Simulation

More information

Item ID: 43686
DC Identifier: http://oa.upm.es/43686/
OAI Identifier: oai:oa.upm.es:43686
Official URL: http://www.photovoltaic-conference.com/
Deposited by: Memoria Investigacion
Deposited on: 18 Oct 2016 11:16
Last Modified: 19 May 2017 12:32
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