Application of the real options approach to the appraisal of motorway concessions. The abandonment option.

Cabero Colín, Fernando (2016). Application of the real options approach to the appraisal of motorway concessions. The abandonment option.. Thesis (Doctoral), E.T.S.I. Caminos, Canales y Puertos (UPM). https://doi.org/10.20868/UPM.thesis.44191.

Description

Title: Application of the real options approach to the appraisal of motorway concessions. The abandonment option.
Author/s:
  • Cabero Colín, Fernando
Contributor/s:
  • Sánchez Soliño, Antonio
  • Lara Galera, Antonio Lorenzo
Item Type: Thesis (Doctoral)
Date: 2016
Subjects:
Faculty: E.T.S.I. Caminos, Canales y Puertos (UPM)
Department: Ingeniería Civil: Construcción
Creative Commons Licenses: Recognition - No derivative works - Non commercial

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Abstract

Las inversiones en proyectos de infraestructuras de transporte, especialmente las concesiones de infraestructuras, están asociadas con un alto grado de incertidumbre y requieren de la aplicación de elevadas cantidades de recursos. La estimación del valor presente de los flujos de caja futuros conlleva descontar esos flujos a una determinada tasa de descuento, que en algunos casos, puede conducir a errores cuando el proyecto lleva asociado cierto grado de flexibilidad. En estos casos, los métodos de valoración de inversiones basados en la aplicación de la teoría de opciones reales, nos permite estimar el valor del proyecto en un entorno de incertidumbre, añadiendo el valor de la flexibilidad administrativa, operativa y de gestión a los métodos de valoraciones tradicionales. En la presente tesis doctoral se aplica la teoría de opciones reales al caso concreto de la opción de abandono de un proyecto de concesión de infraestructuras de transporte. Para ello, se ha considerado el tráfico como activo subyacente para llevar a cabo la analogía con las opciones financieras. Investments in transport infrastructure projects, and specifically in toll motorway concessions, are associated with a high degree of uncertainty and require a large amount of resources. The estimate of the net present value of the project involves discounting future revenue at a given discount rate, which can lead to mistaken results when the project implies a certain degree of flexibility. In such cases, methods for the valuation of the investments based on the real options theory allow to estimate projects in an uncertain environment, adding the value of the administrative, operative and managerial flexibility to the strictly financial valuation of the traditional methods. In this dissertation, the options theory has been applied to the specific case of the abandonment option in a toll motorway concession project. For this purpose, the traffic of the motorway has been considered as the underlying asset to carry out a valuation based on the analogy with the financial options.

More information

Item ID: 44191
DC Identifier: http://oa.upm.es/44191/
OAI Identifier: oai:oa.upm.es:44191
DOI: 10.20868/UPM.thesis.44191
Deposited by: Biblioteca ETSI Caminos
Deposited on: 19 Dec 2016 11:53
Last Modified: 16 Jun 2017 22:30
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