A Heuristic Framework for Exploring Uncertainties in Transport Planning

Abstract

Uncertainty has been an important and almost endless topic for transport-planning scholars along decades. However, an important shift from rational standpoints to more pragmatic and realistic views has taken place (Khisty & Arslan, 2005; Salet et al, 2013; Tapio, 1996). While rational planning models have treated uncertainty as a hindrance for providing accurate representations of reality, more recent approaches also use uncertainties as an opportunity to challenge old transport realities (Lyons & Davidson, 2016). In this sense, the capacity of practitioners and scholars to capture situations of uncertainty is embedded in their different visions about the planning process and its purpose. This motivates the search for overarching representations of uncertainty, taking into account multiple aspects and perspectives of the whole planning process.