What role will climate change play in EU agricultural markets? An integrated assessment taking into account carbon fertilization effects

Martínez Muñoz, Pilar and Blanco Fonseca, Maria and Van Doorslaer, Benjamin and Ramos, Fabien and Ceglar, Andrej (2017). What role will climate change play in EU agricultural markets? An integrated assessment taking into account carbon fertilization effects. "Spanish Journal of Agricultural Research", v. 15 (n. 3); pp.. ISSN 2171-9292. https://doi.org/10.5424/sjar/2017153-9899.

Description

Title: What role will climate change play in EU agricultural markets? An integrated assessment taking into account carbon fertilization effects
Author/s:
  • Martínez Muñoz, Pilar
  • Blanco Fonseca, Maria
  • Van Doorslaer, Benjamin
  • Ramos, Fabien
  • Ceglar, Andrej
Item Type: Article
Título de Revista/Publicación: Spanish Journal of Agricultural Research
Date: 2017
ISSN: 2171-9292
Volume: 15
Subjects:
Faculty: E.T.S. de Ingeniería Agronómica, Alimentaria y de Biosistemas (UPM)
Department: Economía Agraria, Estadística y Gestión de Empresas
Creative Commons Licenses: Recognition - Non commercial - Share

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Abstract

Recent studies point to climate change being one of the long-term drivers of agricultural market uncertainty. To advance in the understanding of the influence of climate change on future agricultural market developments, we compared a baseline scenario for the year 2030 with alternative simulation scenarios that differ regarding: (1) emission scenarios; (2) climate projections; and (3) the consideration of carbon fertilization effects on crop growth. For each simulation scenario, the CAPRI model provides global and EU-wide impacts of climate change on agricultural markets. Results showed that climate change would considerably affect agrifood markets up to 2030. Nevertheless, market-driven adaptation strategies (production intensification, trade adjustments) would soften the impact of yield shocks on supply and demand. As a result, regional changes in production would be lower than foreseen by other studies focused on supply effects.

Funding Projects

TypeCodeAcronymLeaderTitle
FP7235175TRUSTEEUnspecifiedTowards RUral Synergies and Trade-offs between Economic development and Ecosystem services

More information

Item ID: 53218
DC Identifier: http://oa.upm.es/53218/
OAI Identifier: oai:oa.upm.es:53218
DOI: 10.5424/sjar/2017153-9899
Official URL: https://doi.org/10.5424/sjar/2017153-9899
Deposited by: Prof. Maria Blanco
Deposited on: 11 Dec 2018 07:46
Last Modified: 11 Dec 2018 07:46
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