Selection of Bias Correction Methods to Assess the Impact of Climate Change on Flood Frequency Curves

Soriano Martín, Enrique and Mediero Orduña, Luis Jesús and Garijo Sarria, Carlos (2018). Selection of Bias Correction Methods to Assess the Impact of Climate Change on Flood Frequency Curves. In: "3rd International Electronic Conference on Water Sciences (ECWS 3)", 15-30 Noviembre, 2018. pp. 1-7. https://doi.org/10.3390/ECWS-3-05809.

Description

Title: Selection of Bias Correction Methods to Assess the Impact of Climate Change on Flood Frequency Curves
Author/s:
  • Soriano Martín, Enrique
  • Mediero Orduña, Luis Jesús
  • Garijo Sarria, Carlos
Item Type: Presentation at Congress or Conference (Other)
Event Title: 3rd International Electronic Conference on Water Sciences (ECWS 3)
Event Dates: 15-30 Noviembre, 2018
Title of Book: Proceedings of 3rd International Electronic Conference on Water Sciences (ECWS-3)
Date: 15 November 2018
Volume: 7
Subjects:
Freetext Keywords: Bias Correction,Quantile Mapping, Climate Change, Floods,CORDEX
Faculty: E.T.S.I. Caminos, Canales y Puertos (UPM)
Department: Ingeniería Civil: Hidráulica, Energía y Medio Ambiente
Creative Commons Licenses: Recognition - No derivative works - Non commercial

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Abstract

Annual maximum daily rainfalls will change in the future because of climate change, according to climate projections provided by EURO-CORDEX. This study aims at understanding how the expected changes in precipitation extremes will affect the flood behavior in the future. Hydrological modeling is required to characterize the rainfall-runoff process adequately in a changing climate to estimate flood changes. Precipitation and temperature projections given by climate models in the control period usually do not fit the observations in the same period exactly from a statistical point of view. To correct such errors, bias correction methods are used. This paper aims at finding the most adequate bias correction method for both temperature and precipitation projections, minimizing the errors between observed and simulated precipitation and flood frequency curves. Four catchments located in central western Spain have been selected as case studies. The HBV hydrological model has been calibrated, using the observed precipitation, temperature, and streamflow data available at a daily scale. Expected changes in precipitation extremes are usually smoothed by the reduction of soil moisture content due to expected increases in temperatures and decreases in mean annual precipitation. Consequently, rainfall is the most significant input to the model and polynomial quantile mapping is the best bias correction method.

More information

Item ID: 54683
DC Identifier: http://oa.upm.es/54683/
OAI Identifier: oai:oa.upm.es:54683
DOI: 10.3390/ECWS-3-05809
Official URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2504-3900/7/1
Deposited by: Memoria Investigacion
Deposited on: 11 Apr 2019 15:02
Last Modified: 11 Apr 2019 15:12
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