Long-term forecast of energy and fuels demand towards a sustainable road transport sector in ecuador (2016-2035): a leap model application

Rivera González, Luis Miguel and Bolonio Martín, David and Mazadiego Martínez, Luis Felipe and Naranjo-Silva, Sebastián and Escobar-Segovia, Kenny (2020). Long-term forecast of energy and fuels demand towards a sustainable road transport sector in ecuador (2016-2035): a leap model application. "Sustainability", v. 12 (n. 472); pp. 1-26. ISSN 2071-1050. https://doi.org/10.3390/su12020472.

Description

Title: Long-term forecast of energy and fuels demand towards a sustainable road transport sector in ecuador (2016-2035): a leap model application
Author/s:
  • Rivera González, Luis Miguel
  • Bolonio Martín, David
  • Mazadiego Martínez, Luis Felipe
  • Naranjo-Silva, Sebastián
  • Escobar-Segovia, Kenny
Item Type: Article
Título de Revista/Publicación: Sustainability
Date: January 2020
ISSN: 2071-1050
Volume: 12
Subjects:
Freetext Keywords: sustainable energy; alternative fuels; energy forecast; energy policies; road transport sector; Ecuador
Faculty: E.T.S.I. de Minas y Energía (UPM)
Department: Energía y Combustibles
Creative Commons Licenses: Recognition - No derivative works - Non commercial

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Abstract

The total energy demand in the transport sector represented 48.80% of the total consumption in Ecuador throughout 2016, where 89.87% corresponded to the road transport sector. Therefore, it is crucial to analyze the future behavior of this sector and assess the economic and environmental measures towards sustainable development. Consequently, this study analyzed: (1) the total energy demand for each vehicle class and fuel type; (2) the GHG (greenhouse gas) emissions and air pollutants NOx and PM10; and (3) the cost attributed to the fuel demand, between 2016 and 2035. For this, four alternative demand scenarios were designed: BAU: Bussiness As Usual; EOM: Energy Optimization and Mitigation; AF: Alternative Fuels; and SM: Sustainable Mobility using Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning system. After analysis, the EOM, AF, and SM scenarios have advantages relative to BAU, where SM particularly stands out. The results show that SM compared to BAU, contributes with a 12.14% (141,226 kBOE) decrease of the total energy demand, and the economic savings for this fuel demand is of 14.22% (26,720 MUSD). Moreover, global NOx and PM10 emissions decreased by 14.91% and 13.78%, respectively. Additionally, accumulated GHG emissions decreased by 13.49% due to the improvement of the fuel quality for the vehicles that mainly consume liquefied petroleum gas, natural gas, and electricity.

More information

Item ID: 57639
DC Identifier: http://oa.upm.es/57639/
OAI Identifier: oai:oa.upm.es:57639
DOI: 10.3390/su12020472
Official URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/12/2/472/htm
Deposited by: Memoria Investigacion
Deposited on: 14 Jan 2020 06:46
Last Modified: 14 Jan 2020 06:46
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