Application of Bayesian Networks to the Upper Guadiana Basin

Zorilla, Pedro and Carmona García, Gema and Hera, Africa de la and Bromley, John and Varela Ortega, Consuelo and Joergen Henriksen, Hans and Rasmussen, Per (2010). Application of Bayesian Networks to the Upper Guadiana Basin. In: "CAIWA 2007, International Conference on Adaptive & Integrated Water", 12/11/2007 - 15/11/2007, Suiza.

Description

Title: Application of Bayesian Networks to the Upper Guadiana Basin
Author/s:
  • Zorilla, Pedro
  • Carmona García, Gema
  • Hera, Africa de la
  • Bromley, John
  • Varela Ortega, Consuelo
  • Joergen Henriksen, Hans
  • Rasmussen, Per
Item Type: Presentation at Congress or Conference (Article)
Event Title: CAIWA 2007, International Conference on Adaptive & Integrated Water
Event Dates: 12/11/2007 - 15/11/2007
Event Location: Suiza
Title of Book: Proceedings of CAIWA 2007, International Conference on Adaptive & Integrated Water
Date: January 2010
Subjects:
Faculty: E.T.S.I. Agrónomos (UPM) [antigua denominación]
Department: Economía y Ciencias Sociales Agrarias [hasta 2014]
Creative Commons Licenses: Recognition - No derivative works - Non commercial

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Abstract

The need for more stakeholder participation is becoming increasingly important in natural resource management and for water resources in particular. There are a number of methods to facilitate the participatory process but in many cases the quality of these methods is difficult to evaluate because of the lack of appropriate benchmarks. Therefore there is a need of researches evaluating participatory process with clear evaluation criteria. This paper describes the development of a participatory decision support system based on Bayesian networks (Bns) and evaluates the implementation of the methodology using selected criteria. The work has been conducted in the Upper Guadiana Basin (UGB) in central Spain, a site of serious water management conflict, where groundwater-based irrigation is the main water consumer, accounting for 95% of the total uses. The uncontrolled exploitation of groundwater resources along several decades has led to an important environmental degradation and significant conflicts among stakeholder groups. The need to find solutions is becoming more urgent since the implementation of the Water Framework requires a good state of water ecosystems in the short term. The participatory building of Bayesian networks was lead to three-fold objectives: (1) To develop a DSS in the UGB, which allows the impacts of different water management options on the groundwater levels and agricultural economy to be evaluated. (2) To improve the knowledge of key water users and provide a platform for dialogue among stakeholders. (3) To evaluate the ability of Bns to provide support in complex conflict situations and as a means to more effectively engage stakeholders in the decision making process. The results obtained show that, in this context, the elaboration of a Bayesian network requires simplification of the problem, which helps stakeholders to understand the elements involved in the problem and the relationships among them. In addition to this, Bayesian networks have proved to be a good tool to deal with stakeholder participation, due to their defined structured elaboration process.

More information

Item ID: 7042
DC Identifier: http://oa.upm.es/7042/
OAI Identifier: oai:oa.upm.es:7042
Official URL: http://www.newater.info/caiwa/
Deposited by: Memoria Investigacion
Deposited on: 13 May 2011 09:35
Last Modified: 20 Apr 2016 16:10
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