Climate change and agricultural adaptation: assessing management uncertainty for four crop types in Spain

Iglesias Picazo, Ana; Quiroga Gomez, Sonia y Schlickenrieder, Jeremy (2010). Climate change and agricultural adaptation: assessing management uncertainty for four crop types in Spain. "Climate Research", v. 44 (n. 1); pp. 83-94. ISSN 0936-577X. https://doi.org/10.3354/cr00921.

Descripción

Título: Climate change and agricultural adaptation: assessing management uncertainty for four crop types in Spain
Autor/es:
  • Iglesias Picazo, Ana
  • Quiroga Gomez, Sonia
  • Schlickenrieder, Jeremy
Tipo de Documento: Artículo
Título de Revista/Publicación: Climate Research
Fecha: Octubre 2010
Volumen: 44
Materias:
Escuela: E.T.S.I. Agrónomos (UPM) [antigua denominación]
Departamento: Economía y Ciencias Sociales Agrarias [hasta 2014]
Licencias Creative Commons: Reconocimiento - Sin obra derivada - No comercial

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Resumen

Climate change inevitably leads to large regional variations in risks and opportunities and is likely to affect most farmers in the Mediterranean in the next decades. The interpretation of climate projections to determine appropriate policy responses is not without difficulties, such as understanding local uncertainty and responses of specific crops to sets of conditions. Here we analyse the potential impacts of climate on agriculture in the Mediterranean — a region that exemplifies other regions of the world that are prone to drought and are likely to experience increased frequency and intensity of droughts in the future. Our analysis relies on understanding the sources of uncertainty derived from climate scenarios, agricultural systems, impact responses and risk levels to support informed decisions for planned agricultural adaptation. We generated multiple projections of impacts based on different models of climate change and crop response in order to capture uncertainties. We used statistical models of yield response and projections of climate change generated from 16 climate scenarios to address the likelihood of projected impacts on traditional Mediterranean farming systems, represented in this study by cereals, grapes, olives and citrus. Results show that uncertainty varies widely by crop and location, and adaptation priorities will therefore depend on the risk focus of adaptation plans

Más información

ID de Registro: 7135
Identificador DC: http://oa.upm.es/7135/
Identificador OAI: oai:oa.upm.es:7135
Identificador DOI: 10.3354/cr00921
URL Oficial: http://www.int-res.com/abstracts/cr/v44/n1/p83-94/
Depositado por: Memoria Investigacion
Depositado el: 23 May 2011 10:45
Ultima Modificación: 01 Nov 2014 23:56
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