Predictive modelling of climate suitability for Pinus halepensis in Spain

Gastón González, Aitor and Garcia Viñas, Juan Ignacio (2010). Predictive modelling of climate suitability for Pinus halepensis in Spain. In: "IUFRO Joint International Meeting on Global Change and Mediterranean Pines: Alternatives for Management", 10/02/2010 - 12/02/2010, Palencia, España.

Description

Title: Predictive modelling of climate suitability for Pinus halepensis in Spain
Author/s:
  • Gastón González, Aitor
  • Garcia Viñas, Juan Ignacio
Item Type: Presentation at Congress or Conference (Article)
Event Title: IUFRO Joint International Meeting on Global Change and Mediterranean Pines: Alternatives for Management
Event Dates: 10/02/2010 - 12/02/2010
Event Location: Palencia, España
Title of Book: Abstracts of IUFRO Joint International Meeting on Global Change and Mediterranean Pines: Alternatives for Management
Date: 2010
Subjects:
Faculty: E.U.I.T. Forestal (UPM)
Department: Producción Vegetal: Botánica y Protección Vegetal [hasta 2014]
Creative Commons Licenses: Recognition - No derivative works - Non commercial

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Abstract

The response of Mediterranean pine species distribution to global change is a key feature of forest management in a changing environment. Climate suitability models are valuable tools for understanding and anticipating the effects of climate change on species distributions. Logistic regression was used to model climate suitability for Pinus halepensis in Spain, using National Forest Inventory as training sample. Predictive performance was evaluated using ICP Forests Level I grid as independent validation sample. The same independent sample was used to assess predictive performance of some previously available suitability models for Pinus halepensis in Spain. Results show good predictive performance for the logistic regression model, considering both discrimination and calibration. The logistic regression model outperformed other models previously available for Pinus halepensis in Spain. [ESPAÑOL] La respuesta de las especies de pinos mediterráneas al cambio global es una cuestión clave en la gestión forestal en un mundo cambiante. Los modelos de idoneidad climática son valiosas herramientas para comprender los efectos del cambio climático en la distribución de las especies de pinos y anticiparse a los mismos. Se ha usado la regresión logística para modelizar la idoneidad climática para Pinus halepensis en España con el Inventario Forestal Nacional como muestra de entrenamiento. La capacidad predictiva se ha evaluado usando la Red de Nivel I del ICP Forests como muestra de validación independiente. La misma muestra independiente se ha usado para evaluar la capacidad predictiva de algunos modelos de idoneidad previamente disponibles para Pinus halepensis en España. Los resultados muestran la buena capacidad predictiva del modelo de regresión logística, tanto si se considera la discriminación, como la calibración. El modelo de regresión logística supera en capacidad predictiva a otros modelos previamente disponibles para Pinus halepensis en España.

More information

Item ID: 7509
DC Identifier: http://oa.upm.es/7509/
OAI Identifier: oai:oa.upm.es:7509
Official URL: http://www.iufro.org/
Deposited by: Memoria Investigacion
Deposited on: 16 Jun 2011 08:09
Last Modified: 20 Apr 2016 16:38
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