Assessing overexploitation in Mediterranean aquifers using system stability condition analysis

Abstract

This paper analyses competitive groundwater exploitation for irrigation by means of a special case of a dynamic predator–prey or human-resource theoretical model. On the human side, the model considers both farmers’ rational behaviour and a set of economic parameters. Then the model explicitly links these issues to the dynamics of the natural resource. Equilibrium states are evaluated, and the drivers and conditions for final states leading to groundwater overexploitation are assessed. The theoretical model finally serves to discuss the long-term sustainability of the processes of transformation from traditional to highly intensive pumping-based agricultural systems. These are processes now taking place in aquifers of southern Spain and Maghreb oases.