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Vicente Cestero, Eloy and Jiménez Martín, Antonio and Mateos Caballero, Alfonso (2013). An interactive method of fuzzy probability elicitation in risk analysis. In: "4th International Conference on Risk Analysis and Crisis Response", 27-29 Aug 2013, Estambul, Turquía. ISBN 978-1-138-00019-3. pp. 223-228.
Title: | An interactive method of fuzzy probability elicitation in risk analysis |
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Author/s: |
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Item Type: | Presentation at Congress or Conference (Article) |
Event Title: | 4th International Conference on Risk Analysis and Crisis Response |
Event Dates: | 27-29 Aug 2013 |
Event Location: | Estambul, Turquía |
Title of Book: | Intelligent Systems and Decision Making for Risk Analysis and Crisis Response |
Date: | 2013 |
ISBN: | 978-1-138-00019-3 |
Subjects: | |
Faculty: | Facultad de Informática (UPM) |
Department: | Inteligencia Artificial |
Creative Commons Licenses: | Recognition - No derivative works - Non commercial |
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Expert knowledge is used to assign probabilities to events in many risk analysis models. However, experts sometimes find it hard to provide specific values for these probabilities, preferring to express vague or imprecise terms that are mapped using a previously defined fuzzy number scale. The rigidity of these scales generates bias in the probability elicitation process and does not allow experts to adequately express their probabilistic judgments. We present an interactive method for extracting a fuzzy number from experts that represents their probabilistic judgments for a given event, along with a quality measure of the probabilistic judgments, useful in a final information filtering and analysis sensitivity process.
Item ID: | 26126 |
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DC Identifier: | https://oa.upm.es/26126/ |
OAI Identifier: | oai:oa.upm.es:26126 |
Official URL: | http://www.racr2013.itu.edu.tr/index.html |
Deposited by: | Memoria Investigacion |
Deposited on: | 22 Jul 2014 11:20 |
Last Modified: | 04 Dec 2017 10:51 |