The Gothenburg Protocol: Projections, Expectations and Realities: Lessons from a National Review

Abstract

The Gothenburg Protocol entered into force on the 17th of May 2005, with 24 Parties ratifying the proposed emission ceilings for a range of transboundary pollutants. These ceilings were themselves formulated in 1999 using the RAINS integrated assessment model and a broad base of relevant forecasts and calibration data. In the intervening nine years, with the 2010 ceiling deadline approaching and a potential review for a new round of future emission ceilings, there is an opportunity to review the earlier work and consider the lessons for future processes. This paper considers the original projections and expectations associated with the Gothenburg Protocol emission ceilings for six countries and contrasts these against the current realities and contemporary short-term forecasts out to 2010. In this process, the paper derives a number of considerations and lessons to be considered for future agreements of this nature.