El Niño influence on potential maize yield in Iberian Peninsula

Capa Morocho, M. and Rodríguez Fonseca, Belén and Ruiz Ramos, Margarita (2015). El Niño influence on potential maize yield in Iberian Peninsula. "International Journal of Climatology", v. 36 (n. 3); pp. 1313-1330. ISSN 0899-8418. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4426.


Title: El Niño influence on potential maize yield in Iberian Peninsula
  • Capa Morocho, M.
  • Rodríguez Fonseca, Belén
  • Ruiz Ramos, Margarita
Item Type: Article
Título de Revista/Publicación: International Journal of Climatology
Date: March 2015
ISSN: 0899-8418
Volume: 36
Faculty: E.T.S.I. Agrónomos (UPM) [antigua denominación]
Department: Producción Agraria
Creative Commons Licenses: Recognition - No derivative works - Non commercial

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El Niño phenomenon is the leading mode of sea surface temperature interannual variability. It can affect weather patterns worldwide and therefore crop production. Crop models are useful tools for impact and predictability applications, allowing to obtain long time series of potential and attainable crop yield, unlike to available time series of observed crop yield for many countries. Using this tool, crop yield variability in a location of Iberia Peninsula (IP) has been previously studied, finding predictability from Pacific El Niño conditions. Nevertheless, the work has not been done for an extended area. The present work carries out an analysis of maize yield variability in IP for the whole twenty century, using a calibrated crop model at five contrasting Spanish locations and reanalyses climate datasets to obtain long time series of potential yield. The study tests the use of reanalysis data for obtaining only climate dependent time series of crop yield for the whole region, and to use these yield to analyze the influences of oceanic and atmospheric patterns. The results show a good reliability of reanalysis data. The spatial distribution of the leading principal component of yield variability shows a similar behaviour over all the studied locations in the IP. The strong linear correlation between El Niño index and yield is remarkable, being this relation non-stationary on time, although the air temperature-yield relationship remains on time, being the highest influences during grain filling period. Regarding atmospheric patterns, the summer Scandinavian pattern has significant influence on yield in IP. The potential usefulness of this study is to apply the relationships found to improving crop forecasting in IP.

Funding Projects

Government of SpainCGL2012-38923-C02-02UnspecifiedUnspecifiedUnspecified
Government of SpainCGL2012-38923-C02-01UnspecifiedUnspecifiedUnspecified

More information

Item ID: 40664
DC Identifier: https://oa.upm.es/40664/
OAI Identifier: oai:oa.upm.es:40664
DOI: 10.1002/joc.4426
Official URL: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.4426/full
Deposited by: Memoria Investigacion
Deposited on: 15 Jun 2016 15:09
Last Modified: 31 Mar 2017 22:30
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