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Almeida, Marcelo Pinho and Muñoz, Mikel and Parra, Iñigo de la and Perpiñan Lamigueiro, Oscar and Narvarte Fernández, Luis (2015). Comparative study of nonparametric and parametric PV models to forecast AC power output of PV plants. In: "31st European Photovoltaic Solar Energy Conference and Exhibition: EUPVSEC 2015", 14/09/2015-18/09/2015, Hamburg, Germany. ISBN 3-936338-39-6. pp. 2230-2234.
Title: | Comparative study of nonparametric and parametric PV models to forecast AC power output of PV plants |
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Author/s: |
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Item Type: | Presentation at Congress or Conference (Poster) |
Event Title: | 31st European Photovoltaic Solar Energy Conference and Exhibition: EUPVSEC 2015 |
Event Dates: | 14/09/2015-18/09/2015 |
Event Location: | Hamburg, Germany |
Title of Book: | EU PVSEC Proceedings |
Date: | September 2015 |
ISBN: | 3-936338-39-6 |
Subjects: | |
Freetext Keywords: | PV output power forecast; Numerical weather prediction; Parametric PV model; Nonparametric PV model |
Faculty: | E.T.S.I. Diseño Industrial (UPM) |
Department: | Ingeniería Eléctrica, Electrónica Automática y Física Aplicada |
Creative Commons Licenses: | Recognition - No derivative works - Non commercial |
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In this paper, a comparison between two approaches to predict the AC power output of PV systems is carried out in terms of forecast performance. Each approach uses one of the two main types of PV modeling, parametric and nonparametric, and both use as inputs several forecasts of meteorological variables from a Numerical Weather Prediction model. Furthermore, actual AC power measurements of a PV plant are used to train the nonparametric model, to adjust the parameters of the different PV components models used in the parametric approach and to assess the quality of the forecasts. The approaches presented similar behavior, although the nonparametric approach, based on Quantile Regression Forests, showed smaller biased errors due to the machine learning tool used.
Item ID: | 42462 |
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DC Identifier: | https://oa.upm.es/42462/ |
OAI Identifier: | oai:oa.upm.es:42462 |
Official URL: | http://www.photovoltaic-conference.com/ |
Deposited by: | Memoria Investigacion |
Deposited on: | 08 Jul 2016 08:12 |
Last Modified: | 19 May 2017 12:32 |