Using a nonparametric PV model to forecast AC power output of PV plants

Almeida, Marcelo Pinho and Perpiñan Lamigueiro, Oscar and Narvarte Fernández, Luis (2015). Using a nonparametric PV model to forecast AC power output of PV plants. In: "31st European Photovoltaic Solar Energy Conference and Exhibition: EUPVSEC 2015", 14/09/2015-18/09/2015, Hamburg, Germany. ISBN 3-936338-39-6. pp. 2227-2233.

Description

Title: Using a nonparametric PV model to forecast AC power output of PV plants
Author/s:
  • Almeida, Marcelo Pinho
  • Perpiñan Lamigueiro, Oscar
  • Narvarte Fernández, Luis
Item Type: Presentation at Congress or Conference (Article)
Event Title: 31st European Photovoltaic Solar Energy Conference and Exhibition: EUPVSEC 2015
Event Dates: 14/09/2015-18/09/2015
Event Location: Hamburg, Germany
Title of Book: EU PVSEC Proceedings
Date: September 2015
ISBN: 3-936338-39-6
Subjects:
Freetext Keywords: PV output power forecast; Numerical weather prediction; Quantile regression forests
Faculty: E.T.S.I. Diseño Industrial (UPM)
Department: Ingeniería Eléctrica, Electrónica Automática y Física Aplicada
Creative Commons Licenses: Recognition - No derivative works - Non commercial

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Abstract

In this paper, a methodology using a nonparametric model is used to forecast AC power output of PV plants using as inputs several forecasts of meteorological variables from a Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model and actual AC power measurements of PV plants. The methodology was built upon the R environment and uses Quantile Regression Forests as machine learning tool to forecast the AC power with a confidence interval. Real data from five PV plants was used to validate the methodology, and results show that the daily production of individual plants can be predicted with a skill score up to 0.361.

Funding Projects

Type
Code
Acronym
Leader
Title
FP7
308468
PVCROPS
Universidad Politécnica de Madrid
PhotoVoltaic Cost reduction, Reliability, Operational performance, Prediction and Simulation

More information

Item ID: 43686
DC Identifier: https://oa.upm.es/43686/
OAI Identifier: oai:oa.upm.es:43686
Official URL: http://www.photovoltaic-conference.com/
Deposited by: Memoria Investigacion
Deposited on: 18 Oct 2016 11:16
Last Modified: 19 May 2017 12:32
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