Almeida, Marcelo Pinho and Perpiñan Lamigueiro, Oscar and Narvarte Fernández, Luis (2015). Using a nonparametric PV model to forecast AC power output of PV plants. In: "31st European Photovoltaic Solar Energy Conference and Exhibition: EUPVSEC 2015", 14/09/2015-18/09/2015, Hamburg, Germany. ISBN 3-936338-39-6. pp. 2227-2233.
| Title: | Using a nonparametric PV model to forecast AC power output of PV plants |
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| Author/s: |
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| Item Type: | Presentation at Congress or Conference (Article) |
| Event Title: | 31st European Photovoltaic Solar Energy Conference and Exhibition: EUPVSEC 2015 |
| Event Dates: | 14/09/2015-18/09/2015 |
| Event Location: | Hamburg, Germany |
| Title of Book: | EU PVSEC Proceedings |
| Date: | September 2015 |
| ISBN: | 3-936338-39-6 |
| Subjects: | |
| Freetext Keywords: | PV output power forecast; Numerical weather prediction; Quantile regression forests |
| Faculty: | E.T.S.I. Diseño Industrial (UPM) |
| Department: | Ingeniería Eléctrica, Electrónica Automática y Física Aplicada |
| Creative Commons Licenses: | Recognition - No derivative works - Non commercial |
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In this paper, a methodology using a nonparametric model is used to forecast AC power output of PV plants using as inputs several forecasts of meteorological variables from a Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model and actual AC power measurements of PV plants. The methodology was built upon the R environment and uses Quantile Regression Forests as machine learning tool to forecast the AC power with a confidence interval. Real data from five PV plants was used to validate the methodology, and results show that the daily production of individual plants can be predicted with a skill score up to 0.361.
| Item ID: | 43686 |
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| DC Identifier: | https://oa.upm.es/43686/ |
| OAI Identifier: | oai:oa.upm.es:43686 |
| Official URL: | http://www.photovoltaic-conference.com/ |
| Deposited by: | Memoria Investigacion |
| Deposited on: | 18 Oct 2016 11:16 |
| Last Modified: | 19 May 2017 12:32 |
