Exploring the sustainability challenges of long-distance passenger trends in Europe

Abstract

This paper reviews current drivers of long-distance passenger transport demand in Europe, and elaborates about their environmental impacts and the suitability of current EU policies to address them. The paper focuses on car and air travel, as they concentrate the bulk of environmental impacts, at least in terms of GHG emissions. Furthermore, car travel keeps the highest share of total travel, and air travel is the fastest growing mode in Europe, justifying a closer look to both modes. The prospects of a peaking or "plateau" value for long-distance car travel are discussed, concluding that there is robust evidence of peaking in many European countries, although at unacceptable high levels from a sustainability perspective. In the case of air travel, the main sustainability challenge is the sustained growth in demand, spurred by the strategy of many airports and airlines to induce further demand with low fares. Both trends would need action from governments. The need for action is further justified by two socioeconomic trends: population, with growth concentrated precisely in those countries with higher long-distance mobility patterns, and disposable income, with median values stagnated for many years. The former would suggest a need for demand management action focusing on those countries with higher demand; the latter would challenge the traditional understanding, which associates long-distance transport demand to increasing income and to economic prosperity.