Comparing air quality model performance for planning applications

Abstract

The current policy making needs for emission abatement of air pollutants in Europe call for having simple yet robust tools that allow evaluating the effect of measures and sorting those that produce the most significant effects. As a result, the FAIRMODE Planning Working Group (WG4) seeks to develop a consistent framework for streamlining the understanding of models in order to identify more efficiently the relationship between changes in emissions and their effect in ambient concentration through a series of indicators or potencies. The comparison of sector-specific potencies was carried out using the Delta Tool for the AERIS integrated assessment model for the Iberian Peninsula and the SERCA modelling system, on which it is based. Air quality observations from 11 monitoring stations located in Spain and Portugal were used as independent comparison dataset, focusing on a winter and summer month (January and August), as well as on an annual basis. The comparison revealed that the main difference between AERIS and SERCA is the description of the non-linear relationship between changes in emissions and the formation of secondary pollutants (e.g. secondary particles, ground-level ozone). This is a consequence of the linear simplification that was used to construct AERIS, as opposed to the deterministic formulation that is contained in SERCA and is basically composed of the WRF-CMAQ ensemble. The comparison also suggested differences in the ability to reproduce seasonal variations of pollutants, something which is a consequence of the annual character of AERIS. However, AERIS is able to reproduce its parent air quality model (SERCA) and complies with the general modelling performance requirements stipulated under FAIRMODE. Moreover, its simplified approach, as evidenced by the values of the potencies allows identifying the interactions between emissions and concentrations, facilitating choosing mitigation measures depending on the abatement needs. Additionally, the ability of AERIS to reproduce ambient concentrations under a simplified approach makes it a robust alternative to SERCA for informing policy making and planning in Spain.