Hurst Coefficient in long time series of population size: Model for two plant populations with different reproductive strategies

Abstract

Can the fractal dimension of fluctuations in population size be used to estimate extinction risk? The problem with estimating this fractal dimension is that the lengths of the time series are usually too short for conclusive results. This study answered this question with long time series data obtained from an iterative competition model. This model produces competitive extinction at different perturbation intensities for two different germination strategies: germination of all seeds vs. dormancy in half the seeds. This provided long time series of 900 years and different extinction risks. The results support the hypothesis for the effectiveness of the Hurst coefficient for estimating extinction risk.