Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of a PWR LOCA sequence using parametric and non-parametric methods

Zugazagoitia Hernando, Eneko and Queral Salazar, José Cesar and Fernández Cosials, Mikel Kevin and Gómez Magán, José Javier and Durán Vinuesa, Luis Felipe and Sánchez Torrijos, Jorge and Posada, José María (2020). Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of a PWR LOCA sequence using parametric and non-parametric methods. "Reliability engineering and system safety" (n. 193); p. 106607. ISSN 0951-8320. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2019.106607.

Description

Title: Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of a PWR LOCA sequence using parametric and non-parametric methods
Author/s:
  • Zugazagoitia Hernando, Eneko
  • Queral Salazar, José Cesar
  • Fernández Cosials, Mikel Kevin
  • Gómez Magán, José Javier
  • Durán Vinuesa, Luis Felipe
  • Sánchez Torrijos, Jorge
  • Posada, José María
Item Type: Article
Título de Revista/Publicación: Reliability engineering and system safety
Date: 2020
ISSN: 0951-8320
Subjects:
Faculty: E.T.S.I. de Minas y Energía (UPM)
Department: Energía y Combustibles
Creative Commons Licenses: Recognition - No derivative works - Non commercial

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Abstract

The Best Estimate Plus Uncertainty (BEPU) approach is being used worldwide for nuclear power plants licensing. This method relies on the use of best estimate models to simulate the accident, evaluating the uncertainties involved. To assess these uncertainties, several methodologies have been developed, such as the non-parametric Wilks/Wald method, parametric methods that reconstruct a distribution from the data, or the binomial approach which interprets the results as two states. Additionally, sensitivity analyses can be performed to obtain the correlation of the output-inputs. Finally, a variability analysis of the most influential parameters made to find a combination of parameters that can lead to damage is also useful. In this paper, all previous techniques are described and applied, by performing a large Monte-Carlo set of simulations of a loss of coolant accident in a pressurized water reactor assessing two figures of merit. The comparison of the different methods show that the most conservative is the Wilks/Wald method; the least conservative is the parametric approach, and in between, the binomial one. The impact of the sample size is also studied for all methods, showing different behaviors for the different approaches

More information

Item ID: 67854
DC Identifier: https://oa.upm.es/67854/
OAI Identifier: oai:oa.upm.es:67854
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2019.106607
Official URL: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0951832019300651?via%3Dihub
Deposited by: Memoria Investigacion
Deposited on: 28 Jul 2021 06:36
Last Modified: 28 Jul 2021 06:36
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