Physical and economic consequences of climate change in Europe

Ciscar, Juan Carlos and Iglesias Picazo, Ana and Feyen, Luc and Szabó, László and Van Regemorter, Denise and Amelung, Bas and Nicholl, Robert and Watkiss, Paul and Christensen, Ole B. and Dankers, Rutger and Garrote de Marcos, Luis and Goodess, Clare M. and Hunt, Alistair and Moreno, Alvaro and Richards, Julie and Soria, Antonio (2011). Physical and economic consequences of climate change in Europe. "Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Usa" ; ISSN 0027-8424.


Title: Physical and economic consequences of climate change in Europe
  • Ciscar, Juan Carlos
  • Iglesias Picazo, Ana
  • Feyen, Luc
  • Szabó, László
  • Van Regemorter, Denise
  • Amelung, Bas
  • Nicholl, Robert
  • Watkiss, Paul
  • Christensen, Ole B.
  • Dankers, Rutger
  • Garrote de Marcos, Luis
  • Goodess, Clare M.
  • Hunt, Alistair
  • Moreno, Alvaro
  • Richards, Julie
  • Soria, Antonio
Item Type: Article
Título de Revista/Publicación: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Usa
Date: January 2011
ISSN: 0027-8424
Faculty: E.T.S.I. Agrónomos (UPM) [antigua denominación]
Department: Economía y Ciencias Sociales Agrarias [hasta 2014]
Creative Commons Licenses: Recognition - No derivative works - Non commercial

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Quantitative estimates of the economic damages of climate change usually are based on aggregate relationships linking average temperature change to loss in gross domestic product (GDP). However, there is a clear need for further detail in the regional and sectoral dimensions of impact assessments to design and prioritize adaptation strategies. New developments in regional climate modeling and physical-impact modeling in Europe allow a better exploration of those dimensions. This article quantifies the potential consequences of climate change in Europe in four market impact categories (agriculture, river floods, coastal areas, and tourism) and one nonmarket impact (human health). The methodology integrates a set of coherent, high-resolution climate change projections and physical models into an economic modeling framework. We find that if the climate of the 2080s were to occur today, the annual loss in household welfare in the European Union (EU) resulting from the four market impacts would range between 0.2–1%. If the welfare loss is assumed to be constant over time, climate change may halve the EU's annual welfare growth. Scenarios with warmer temperatures and a higher rise in sea level result in more severe economic damage. However, the results show that there are large variations across European regions. Southern Europe, the British Isles, and Central Europe North appear most sensitive to climate change. Northern Europe, on the other hand, is the only region with net economic benefits, driven mainly by the positive effects on agriculture. Coastal systems, agriculture, and river flooding are the most important of the four market impacts assessed.

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Item ID: 7132
DC Identifier:
OAI Identifier:
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1011612108
Official URL:
Deposited by: Memoria Investigacion
Deposited on: 29 Nov 2011 08:54
Last Modified: 20 Apr 2016 16:17
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