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An interactive method of fuzzy probability elicitation in risk analysis
An interactive method of fuzzy probability elicitation in risk analysis (PDF)
An interactive method of fuzzy probability elicitation in risk analysis (Other)
An interactive method of fuzzy probability elicitation in risk analysis (Other)
An interactive method of fuzzy probability elicitation in risk analysis (Other)
An interactive method of fuzzy probability elicitation in risk analysis (Other)
An interactive method of fuzzy probability elicitation in risk analysis (Other)
Expert knowledge is used to assign probabilities to events in many risk analysis models. However, experts sometimes find it hard to provide specific values for these probabilities, preferring to express vague or imprecise terms that are mapped using a previously defined fuzzy number scale. The rigidity of these scales generates bias in the probability elicitation process and does not allow experts to adequately express their probabilistic judgments. We present an interactive method for extracting a fuzzy number from experts that represents their probabilistic judgments for a given event, along with a quality measure of the probabilistic judgments, useful in a final information filtering and analysis sensitivity process.
2013
An interactive method of fuzzy probability elicitation in risk analysis
Computer Science
Informática
4th International Conference on Risk Analysis and Crisis Response
Estambul, Turquía
CRC Press-Taylor and Francis Group
Jiménez Martín
Antonio
Antonio Jiménez Martín
Mateos Caballero
Alfonso
Alfonso Mateos Caballero
Vicente Cestero
Eloy
Eloy Vicente Cestero