eprintid: 26126
rev_number: 25
eprint_status: archive
userid: 1903
dir: disk0/00/02/61/26
datestamp: 2014-07-22 11:20:36
lastmod: 2017-12-04 10:51:16
status_changed: 2014-07-22 11:20:36
type: conference_item
metadata_visibility: show
item_issues_count: 0
creators_name: Vicente Cestero, Eloy
creators_name: Jiménez Martín, Antonio
creators_name: Mateos Caballero, Alfonso
title: An interactive method of fuzzy probability elicitation in risk analysis
ispublished: unpub
subjects: informatica
abstract: Expert knowledge is used to assign probabilities to events in many risk analysis models. However, experts sometimes find it hard to provide specific values for these probabilities, preferring to express vague or imprecise terms that are mapped using a previously defined fuzzy number scale. The rigidity of these scales generates bias in the probability elicitation process and does not allow experts to adequately express their probabilistic judgments. We present an interactive method for extracting a fuzzy number from experts that represents their probabilistic judgments for a given event, along with a quality measure of the probabilistic judgments, useful in a final information filtering and analysis sensitivity process.
date: 2013
date_type: published
publisher: CRC Press-Taylor and Francis Group
official_url: http://www.racr2013.itu.edu.tr/index.html
full_text_status: public
pres_type: paper
place_of_pub: Londres, Reino Unido
pagerange: 223-228
pages: 6
event_title: 4th International Conference on Risk Analysis and Crisis Response
event_location: Estambul, Turquía
event_dates: 27-29 Aug 2013
event_type: other
institution: Informatica
department: Inteligencia_Artificial
refereed: TRUE
isbn: 978-1-138-00019-3
book_title: Intelligent Systems and Decision Making for Risk Analysis and Crisis Response
rights: by-nc-nd
citation:   Vicente Cestero, Eloy and Jiménez Martín, Antonio and Mateos Caballero, Alfonso  (2013).  An interactive method of fuzzy probability elicitation in risk analysis.  In: "4th International Conference on Risk Analysis and Crisis Response", 27-29 Aug 2013, Estambul, Turquía. ISBN 978-1-138-00019-3. pp. 223-228.    
document_url: https://oa.upm.es/26126/1/INVE_MEM_2013_30514.pdf