Hybrid choice model for propensity to travel and tour complexity

La Paix Puello, Lissy Cesarina and Monzón de Cáceres, Andrés and Cherchi, Elisabetta (2012). Hybrid choice model for propensity to travel and tour complexity. In: "CIT2012. Actas del X Congreso de Ingeniería del Transporte: Transporte innovador y sostenible de cara al siglo XXI", 20/06/2012 - 22/06/2012, Granada (España). p. 1.

Description

Title: Hybrid choice model for propensity to travel and tour complexity
Author/s:
  • La Paix Puello, Lissy Cesarina
  • Monzón de Cáceres, Andrés
  • Cherchi, Elisabetta
Item Type: Presentation at Congress or Conference (Article)
Event Title: CIT2012. Actas del X Congreso de Ingeniería del Transporte: Transporte innovador y sostenible de cara al siglo XXI
Event Dates: 20/06/2012 - 22/06/2012
Event Location: Granada (España)
Title of Book: CIT2012. Actas del X Congreso de Ingeniería del Transporte: Transporte innovador y sostenible de cara al siglo XXI
Date: 2012
Subjects:
Faculty: Centro de Investigación del Transporte (TRANSyT) (UPM)
Department: Otro
Creative Commons Licenses: Recognition - No derivative works - Non commercial

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Abstract

During the last years cities around the world have invested important quantities of money in measures for reducing congestion and car-trips. Investments which are nothing but potential solutions for the well-known urban sprawl phenomenon, also called the “development trap” that leads to further congestion and a higher proportion of our time spent in slow moving cars. Over the path of this searching for solutions, the complex relationship between urban environment and travel behaviour has been studied in a number of cases. The main question on discussion is, how to encourage multi-stop tours? Thus, the objective of this paper is to verify whether unobserved factors influence tour complexity. For this purpose, we use a data-base from a survey conducted in 2006-2007 in Madrid, a suitable case study for analyzing urban sprawl due to new urban developments and substantial changes in mobility patterns in the last years. A total of 943 individuals were interviewed from 3 selected neighbourhoods (CBD, urban and suburban). We study the effect of unobserved factors on trip frequency. This paper present the estimation of an hybrid model where the latent variable is called propensity to travel and the discrete choice model is composed by 5 alternatives of tour type. The results show that characteristics of the neighbourhoods in Madrid are important to explain trip frequency. The influence of land use variables on trip generation is clear and in particular the presence of commercial retails. Through estimation of elasticities and forecasting we determine to what extent land-use policy measures modify travel demand. Comparing aggregate elasticities with percentage variations, it can be seen that percentage variations could lead to inconsistent results. The result shows that hybrid models better explain travel behavior than traditional discrete choice models.

More information

Item ID: 19216
DC Identifier: http://oa.upm.es/19216/
OAI Identifier: oai:oa.upm.es:19216
Official URL: http://www.cit2012.org/
Deposited by: Memoria Investigacion
Deposited on: 18 Sep 2013 15:06
Last Modified: 22 Sep 2014 11:15
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