Manso González, Rubén and Pukkala, Timo and Pardos Mínguez, Marta and Miina, Jari and Calama Sainz, Rafael Argimiro
Modelling Pinus pinea forest management to attain natural
regeneration under present and future climatic scenarios.
"Canadian Journal of Forest Research"
Natural regeneration-based silviculture has been increasingly regarded as a reliable option in sustainable forest
management. However, successful natural regeneration is not always easy to achieve. Recently, new concerns have arisen
because of changing future climate. To date, regeneration models have proved helpful in decision-making concerning natural regeneration. The implementation of such models into optimization routines is a promising approach in providing forest managers with accurate tools for forest planning. In the present study, we present a stochastic multistage regeneration model for Pinus pinea L. managed woodlands in Central Spain, where regeneration has been historically unsuccessful. The model is able to quantify recruitment under different silviculture alternatives and varying climatic scenarios, with further application to
optimize management scheduling. The regeneration process in the species showed high between-year variation, with all
subprocesses (seed production, dispersal, germination, predation, and seedling survival) having the potential to become bottlenecks. However, model simulations demonstrate that current intensive management is responsible for regeneration failure in the long term. Specifically, stand densities at rotation age are too low to guarantee adequate dispersal, the optimal density of seed-producing trees being around 150 stems·ha−1. In addition, rotation length needs to be extended up to 120 years to benefit
from the higher seed production of older trees. Stochastic optimization confirms these results. Regeneration does not appear to worsen under climate change conditions; the species exhibiting resilience worthy of broader consideration in Mediterranean