Varela Ortega, Consuelo and Blanco Gutiérrez, Irene and Esteve Bengoechea, Paloma and Bharwani, S. and Downing, Thomas E. and Fronzek, S.
Analyzing climate change adaptation in the agriculture and water sectors: screening risks and opportunities..
In: "IX Congreso de Economía Agraria", 03/09/2013 - 05/09/2013, Castelldefels, Barcelona, España.
As part of the Mediterranean area, the Guadiana basin in
Spain is particularly exposed to increasing water stress
due to climate change. Future warmer and drier climate
will have negative implications for the sustainability of
water resources and irrigation agriculture, the main socio-
economic sector in the region. This paper illustrates a
systematic analysis of climate change impacts and adaptation in the Guadiana basin based on a two-stage modeling approach. First, an integrated hydro-economic modeling framework was used to simulate the potential
effects of regional climate change scenarios for the period 2000-2069. Second, a participatory multi-criteria technique, namely the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), was applied to rank potential adaptation measures based on agreed criteria. Results show that, in the middle-long run and under severe climate change, reduced water availability, lower crop yields and increased irrigation demands might lead to water shortages, crop failure, and up to ten percent of income losses to irrigators. AHP results show how private farming adaptation measures, including improving irrigation efficiency and adjusting crop
varieties, are preferred to public adaptation measures,
such as building new dams. The integrated quantitative and qualitative methodology used in this research can be
considered a socially-based valuable tool to support adaptation decision-making.