An interactive method of fuzzy probability elicitation in risk analysis

Vicente Cestero, Eloy and Jiménez Martín, Antonio and Mateos Caballero, Alfonso (2013). An interactive method of fuzzy probability elicitation in risk analysis. In: "4th International Conference on Risk Analysis and Crisis Response", 27-29 Aug 2013, Estambul, Turquía. ISBN 978-1-138-00019-3. pp. 223-228.

Description

Title: An interactive method of fuzzy probability elicitation in risk analysis
Author/s:
  • Vicente Cestero, Eloy
  • Jiménez Martín, Antonio
  • Mateos Caballero, Alfonso
Item Type: Presentation at Congress or Conference (Article)
Event Title: 4th International Conference on Risk Analysis and Crisis Response
Event Dates: 27-29 Aug 2013
Event Location: Estambul, Turquía
Title of Book: Intelligent Systems and Decision Making for Risk Analysis and Crisis Response
Date: 2013
ISBN: 978-1-138-00019-3
Subjects:
Faculty: Facultad de Informática (UPM)
Department: Inteligencia Artificial
Creative Commons Licenses: Recognition - No derivative works - Non commercial

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Abstract

Expert knowledge is used to assign probabilities to events in many risk analysis models. However, experts sometimes find it hard to provide specific values for these probabilities, preferring to express vague or imprecise terms that are mapped using a previously defined fuzzy number scale. The rigidity of these scales generates bias in the probability elicitation process and does not allow experts to adequately express their probabilistic judgments. We present an interactive method for extracting a fuzzy number from experts that represents their probabilistic judgments for a given event, along with a quality measure of the probabilistic judgments, useful in a final information filtering and analysis sensitivity process.

More information

Item ID: 26126
DC Identifier: http://oa.upm.es/26126/
OAI Identifier: oai:oa.upm.es:26126
Official URL: http://www.racr2013.itu.edu.tr/index.html
Deposited by: Memoria Investigacion
Deposited on: 22 Jul 2014 11:20
Last Modified: 04 Dec 2017 10:51
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