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An interactive method of fuzzy probability elicitation in risk analysis
Cita
Vicente Cestero, Eloy, Jiménez Martín, Antonio 
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4947-8430 and Mateos Caballero, Alfonso ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4764-6047
(2013).
An interactive method of fuzzy probability elicitation in risk analysis.
En: "4th International Conference on Risk Analysis and Crisis Response", 27-29 Aug 2013, Estambul, Turquía. ISBN 978-1-138-00019-3. pp. 223-228.
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4947-8430 and Mateos Caballero, Alfonso ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4764-6047
(2013).
An interactive method of fuzzy probability elicitation in risk analysis.
En: "4th International Conference on Risk Analysis and Crisis Response", 27-29 Aug 2013, Estambul, Turquía. ISBN 978-1-138-00019-3. pp. 223-228.
Descripción
| Título: | An interactive method of fuzzy probability elicitation in risk analysis |
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| Autor/es: |
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| Tipo de Documento: | Ponencia en Congreso o Jornada (Artículo) |
| Título del Evento: | 4th International Conference on Risk Analysis and Crisis Response |
| Fechas del Evento: | 27-29 Aug 2013 |
| Lugar del Evento: | Estambul, Turquía |
| Título del Libro: | Intelligent Systems and Decision Making for Risk Analysis and Crisis Response |
| Fecha: | 2013 |
| ISBN: | 978-1-138-00019-3 |
| Materias: | |
| ODS: | |
| Escuela: | Facultad de Informática (UPM) [antigua denominación] |
| Departamento: | Inteligencia Artificial |
| Licencias Creative Commons: | Reconocimiento - Sin obra derivada - No comercial |
Resumen
Expert knowledge is used to assign probabilities to events in many risk analysis models. However, experts sometimes find it hard to provide specific values for these probabilities, preferring to express vague or imprecise terms that are mapped using a previously defined fuzzy number scale. The rigidity of these scales generates bias in the probability elicitation process and does not allow experts to adequately express their probabilistic judgments. We present an interactive method for extracting a fuzzy number from experts that represents their probabilistic judgments for a given event, along with a quality measure of the probabilistic judgments, useful in a final information filtering and analysis sensitivity process.
Más información
| ID de Registro: | 26126 |
|---|---|
| Identificador DC: | https://oa.upm.es/26126/ |
| Identificador OAI: | oai:oa.upm.es:26126 |
| URL Oficial: | http://www.racr2013.itu.edu.tr/index.html |
| Depositado por: | Memoria Investigacion |
| Depositado el: | 22 Jul 2014 11:20 |
| Ultima Modificación: | 04 Dic 2017 10:51 |
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