A dynamic factor model for mid-term forecasting of wind power generation

García-Martos, Carolina and Sánchez Naranjo, María Jesús (2013). A dynamic factor model for mid-term forecasting of wind power generation. In: "10th International Conference on the European Energy Market (EEM)", 27/05/2013 - 31/05/2013, Estocolmo (Suecia). ISBN 978-1-4799-2008-2. pp. 1-8.

Description

Title: A dynamic factor model for mid-term forecasting of wind power generation
Author/s:
  • García-Martos, Carolina
  • Sánchez Naranjo, María Jesús
Item Type: Presentation at Congress or Conference (Article)
Event Title: 10th International Conference on the European Energy Market (EEM)
Event Dates: 27/05/2013 - 31/05/2013
Event Location: Estocolmo (Suecia)
Title of Book: 10th International Conference on the European Energy Market (EEM)
Date: 2013
ISBN: 978-1-4799-2008-2
Subjects:
Freetext Keywords: Multivariate Time Series, Unobserved Components, Dimensionality Reduction, Forecasting, Wind Power Production.
Faculty: E.T.S.I. Industriales (UPM)
Department: Ingeniería de Organización, Administración de Empresas y Estadística
Creative Commons Licenses: Recognition - No derivative works - Non commercial

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Abstract

The main objective of this paper is the development and application of multivariate time series models for forecasting aggregated wind power production in a country or region. Nowadays, in Spain, Denmark or Germany there is an increasing penetration of this kind of renewable energy, somehow to reduce energy dependence on the exterior, but always linked with the increaseand uncertainty affecting the prices of fossil fuels. The disposal of accurate predictions of wind power generation is a crucial task both for the System Operator as well as for all the agents of the Market. However, the vast majority of works rarely onsider forecasting horizons longer than 48 hours, although they are of interest for the system planning and operation. In this paper we use Dynamic Factor Analysis, adapting and modifying it conveniently, to reach our aim: the computation of accurate forecasts for the aggregated wind power production in a country for a forecasting horizon as long as possible, particularly up to 60 days (2 months). We illustrate this methodology and the results obtained for real data in the leading country in wind power production: Denmark

More information

Item ID: 33275
DC Identifier: http://oa.upm.es/33275/
OAI Identifier: oai:oa.upm.es:33275
Official URL: http://ieeexplore.ieee.org/xpl/mostRecentIssue.jsp?punumber=6595168&punumber%3D6595168%26filter%3DAND%28p_IS_Number%3A6607268%29%26pageNumber%3D5&pageNumber=6
Deposited by: Memoria Investigacion
Deposited on: 23 Feb 2015 17:34
Last Modified: 19 May 2017 15:36
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