Bayesian model selection methodology for road safety

Dadashova, Bahar and Arenas Ramírez, Blanca del Valle and Mira McWilliams, José Manuel and Aparicio Izquierdo, Francisco (2014). Bayesian model selection methodology for road safety. In: "8th International Conference on Computational and Financial Econometrics and 7th International Conference of the ERCIM (European Research Consortium for Informatics and Mathematics) Working Group on Computational and Methodological Statistics", 06/12/2014 - 08/12/2014, Pisa, Italy. ISBN 978-84-937822-4-5. p. 65.

Description

Title: Bayesian model selection methodology for road safety
Author/s:
  • Dadashova, Bahar
  • Arenas Ramírez, Blanca del Valle
  • Mira McWilliams, José Manuel
  • Aparicio Izquierdo, Francisco
Item Type: Presentation at Congress or Conference (Article)
Event Title: 8th International Conference on Computational and Financial Econometrics and 7th International Conference of the ERCIM (European Research Consortium for Informatics and Mathematics) Working Group on Computational and Methodological Statistics
Event Dates: 06/12/2014 - 08/12/2014
Event Location: Pisa, Italy
Title of Book: CFE-ERCIM 2014. PROGRAMME AND ABSTRACTS
Date: 2014
ISBN: 978-84-937822-4-5
Subjects:
Faculty: Instituto de Investigación del Automóvil (INSIA) (UPM)
Department: Otro
Creative Commons Licenses: Recognition - No derivative works - Non commercial

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Abstract

Road accidents are a very relevant issue in many countries and macroeconomic models are very frequently applied by academia and administrations to reduce their frequency and consequences. The selection of explanatory variables and response transformation parameter within the Bayesian framework for the selection of the set of explanatory variables a TIM and 3IM (two input and three input models) procedures are proposed. The procedure also uses the DIC and pseudo -R2 goodness of fit criteria. The model to which the methodology is applied is a dynamic regression model with Box-Cox transformation (BCT) for the explanatory variables and autorgressive (AR) structure for the response. The initial set of 22 explanatory variables are identified. The effects of these factors on the fatal accident frequency in Spain, during 2000-2012, are estimated. The dependent variable is constructed considering the stochastic trend component.

More information

Item ID: 33310
DC Identifier: http://oa.upm.es/33310/
OAI Identifier: oai:oa.upm.es:33310
Official URL: http://www.cfenetwork.org/CFE2014/
Deposited by: Memoria Investigacion
Deposited on: 09 Feb 2015 16:53
Last Modified: 24 Feb 2017 16:36
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