Poisson dynamic models. An application to interurban accidents in Spain

González Fernández, María Camino and Mira McWilliams, José Manuel and Arenas Ramírez, Blanca del Valle and Saenz Sagástegui, Claudia (2014). Poisson dynamic models. An application to interurban accidents in Spain. In: "TRA2014 Transport Research Arena 2014 Transport Solutions: from Research to Deployment - Innovate Mobility, Mobilise Innovation!", 14-17 abril 2014, Paris. p. 1.

Description

Title: Poisson dynamic models. An application to interurban accidents in Spain
Author/s:
  • González Fernández, María Camino
  • Mira McWilliams, José Manuel
  • Arenas Ramírez, Blanca del Valle
  • Saenz Sagástegui, Claudia
Item Type: Presentation at Congress or Conference (Poster)
Event Title: TRA2014 Transport Research Arena 2014 Transport Solutions: from Research to Deployment - Innovate Mobility, Mobilise Innovation!
Event Dates: 14-17 abril 2014
Event Location: Paris
Title of Book: TRA 2014 Proceedings
Date: 2014
Subjects:
Faculty: E.T.S.I. Industriales (UPM)
Department: Ingeniería de Organización, Administración de Empresas y Estadística
Creative Commons Licenses: Recognition - No derivative works - Non commercial

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Abstract

In this study we apply count data models to four integer–valued time series related to accidentality in Spanish roads applying both the frequentist and Bayesian approaches. The time series are: number of fatalities, number of fatal accidents, number of killed or seriously injured (KSI) and number of accidents with KSI. The model structure is Poisson regression with first order autoregressive errors. The purpose of the paper is first to sort out the explanatory variables by relevance and second to carry out a prediction exercise for validation.

More information

Item ID: 37050
DC Identifier: http://oa.upm.es/37050/
OAI Identifier: oai:oa.upm.es:37050
Official URL: http://tra2014.traconference.eu/papers/html/index.html
Deposited by: Memoria Investigacion
Deposited on: 17 Jul 2015 16:31
Last Modified: 21 Apr 2017 14:03
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