Towards downscaling of aerosol gridded dataset for improving solar resource assessment, an application to Spain

Abstract

Solar radiation estimates with clear sky models require estimations of aerosol data. The low spatial resolution of current aerosol datasets, with their remarkable drift from measured data, poses a problem in solar resource estimation. This paper proposes a new downscaling methodology by combining support vector machines for regression (SVR) and kriging with external drift, with data from the MACC reanalysis datasets and temperature and rainfall measurements from 213 meteorological stations in continental Spain.

The SVR technique was proven efficient in aerosol variable modeling. The Linke turbidity factor (TL) and the aerosol optical depth at 550 nm (AOD 550) estimated with SVR generated significantly lower errors in AERONET positions than MACC reanalysis estimates. The TL was estimated with relative mean absolute error (rMAE) of 10.2% (compared with AERONET), against the MACC rMAE of 18.5%. A similar behavior was seen with AOD 550, estimated with rMAE of 8.6% (compared with AERONET), against the MACC rMAE of 65.6%.

Kriging using MACC data as an external drift was found useful in generating high resolution maps (0.05° × 0.05°) of both aerosol variables. We created high resolution maps of aerosol variables in continental Spain for the year 2008.

The proposed methodology was proven to be a valuable tool to create high resolution maps of aerosol variables (TL and AOD 550). This methodology shows meaningful improvements when compared with estimated available databases and therefore, leads to more accurate solar resource estimations. This methodology could also be applied to the prediction of other atmospheric variables, whose datasets are of low resolution.